Parabolic moves are known across multiple different disciplines.
In ecology, in reference to population growth of a species, they will go parabolic while the environment can sustain it, until it passes what is know as the "carrying capacity". At which point it will still shoot above it, until it eventually crashes below it.
As reference in my post linked to this idea below, I correctly identified the official start of the uptrend (at about 10K), and in fact on the weekly, that has not officially been broken yet.
Since the start of the parabilic move, when we officially entered an uptrend (consecutive higher highs, and higher lows on the weekly), we have had two breaks of the up trend (a lower high, and a lower low), but they weren't followed up by subsequent lower highs and lower lows, and in fact re-established the uptrend.
This week ending on Sunday (6pm CST where I live), we currently have a higher low (as opposed to last week), but a lower high (also opposed to last week. This does not indicate a downtrend yet, but a not of caution. Also in conjunction with the daily, and the comparison to the parabolic move in 2017, I am highly cautious.
If we were to establish a new higher high this week, than we still have a continuation of an uptrend, however if not. Be cautious!
This is not investment advice, just my opinion.
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Correction. We had one week that was a break (true lower high, and lower low), the second I am referring to is this current week, which is not confirmed yet. At this point (at time of posting) it's a higher low, and a lower high), which basically tells us nothing, but if the week closes as such, that would not indicate a downtrend, but also not indicate a continuation of an uptrend.
And the daily and lower time frames, and giving me some serious causes for concern.
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If past is prolouge, we may slightly exceed all time highs (ATH) again, from FOMO, and euphoria. But watch out, if it doesn't break ATH substantially, be very careful.
Last time the parabolic move broke, it lost half it's value in a week, and ultimately went from 20K to 3.5K before starting a new move back up.
Just a word of caution.
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The weekly candle has closed. The uptrend is broken, but it is not a confirmed downtrend yet. If it doesn't achieve a new higher high, and does now break 30100, that will be confirmation of a downtrend.
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Caution. Last weeks higher low, just got broken by a lower low. We still have three days until the weekly candle closes, but we have an definite lower low, and an apparent lower high.
This would indicate the start of of potential down trend, but two data points don't make a trend. Another lower low, and lower high (on the weekly, if it finishes as it is looking now, with a lower low [confirmed] and a lower high [at present unconfirmed, but looking very likely] would be needed to confirm a down trend on the weekly.)
But for bulls (or those who can only go long), I would recommend caution.
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This is not a confirmed down trend yet, but this is a break from the confirmed uptrend. This could easily become a repeat of 2018 in the aftermath of the last parabolic move in 2017.
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It looks like the break of the up trend on the weekly is going to be confirmed. Unless thinngs change drastically in the next 24 hours, we will have both a lower high, and lower low on the weekly. Is that a confirmed downtrend? No. We would need to see another lower high, and lower low on the weekly to confirm that. But it is a definitive break of the uptrend. So we are either in the process of consolidation, or at the start of a new downtrend.
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I haven't updated this in a while, but I was right. Last week we posted a lower high, and a lower low. This is looking now like downtrend. If we post another lower high, and lower low this week (not yet confirmed), it will be a confirmed downtrend.
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I lower low would be at 28731.99, and conversely a higher high would be at 37857.01.
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Another update. The downtrend is invalidated. We got a higher high on the weekly:
What does this mean? Not much, other than we don't have a confirmed uptrend, nor do we have a confirmed down trend. So basically consolidation.
Keep in mind though, this is looking eerily similar to the last parabolic move on the daily.
Finally someone with common sense. How low do you think it'll go this time? Do you see 8k-9k next year or lower?
eb8
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@manjotsbajwa, Well, first of all a couple things here. On the weekly, we haven't established a down trend:
The uptrend seems to have been broken (another 10 hrs until this weekly candle closes so things could change, but it's unlikely.) But a break in the uptrend doesn't establish an immediate down trend.
But again, in reference to this OP, if you look at the past, last time BTC went parabolic, it didn't go down in a straight line from 20k to 3K. It did however lose about half it's value over the course of about a week when it finally broke. The bottom Bollinger band (which is 2 SD from the mean) is sitting at about 26800, so that or even 24K is certainly possible over the course of the next week.
If it breaks below 27678, that would be a new lower low on the weekly, and with also a new lower high, that would confirm the downtrend.
Where it ultimately ends up if a down trend is established? That's tough to say, but I would look toward the 200 EMA, and MA on the daily as levels of strong support, which put it at around 18100, or 15500 (at time the time this post was written.)
WeAreSat0shi
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Yes I agree it's not going to 400k or 300 or even 200k but this is wrong.
Mark my words. People are talking about this going straight to 400k? LOL Maybe? Eventually, But not in a straight line. There is a hard crash coming in the short term.
eb8
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The carrying capacity is not just a law of nature, and a scientific fact, it's also a fundamental truth. And it applies to all things. Including Bitchcoin.