So now we come to a point in time with this consolidation at $400 for deciding the trend for the next several months. Quite an impressive triangle has formed and we're drawing it out right to the end - the break of this will dictate the trend for months (or maybe even years) to come.
But I have discovered a small fractal within the overall beartrend since the $1200 top two years ago. Both have wyckoff's, both have a high level of altcoin activity and people looking to gain additional return on the BTC they are holding. But last time, it ended with people cashing out and leaving this market, will this time be different? ™
A break of the broader triangle would lead to a $240 retest, and potentially could trend us down to new lows.
A break up would imply $680 be tested, and if broken could lead to new ATH's because it would be making continued monthly highs. Bubble target would be $4800 (my guess based off the wisdom of the crowd).
So lets see where we go. Hopefully this is a little more clear than my previous (linked) chart I made comparing bullish bubble cycles back in 2014 at this same period. Now I'm going to give comparing bearish cycles a shot.
Comment
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We can't get much closer than this... another indecision point. We are at the trendline support of this giant 7 month move, now with Ethereum taking much of the liquidity from the crypto traders, we will see where the big chips lie soon enough.
Weekly candles are compressing, probably will exit the 445-470 range within the next 2 weeks. Big move is (still...) brewing, as it was when I published this chart.
Great triangles symmetrical. They broke upwards to a monster rally.
erelerel
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any updates?
Jaqen
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your previous fractal (680usd) was a bulltrap, you can see this reflecting in the volume. Volume-profile on this fractal is completely different indicating in continuation of the uptrend imo.
ltc-joe
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Well done. Personally in the bearish scenario i don't see us spending any meaningful time under $240-$250, if we did that would not be a good sign for btc's future over the next few years. I'm leaning towards the bullish side of things because 1. The #Halvening is on the way 2. Global economic conditions continue to detoriate 3. I am cautiously optimistic we will reach some sort of dependable consensus on segwit and raising the blocksize to 2mb at a set date in the future.
ltc-joe
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I say $240-$250 because of the bottom yellow trendline (on bitstamp), i think it would be tough to close below there.
coinwatcher
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thanks for the analysis. interesting times for a btc trader.