The impulsive five waves from the August 2015 low was followed by a triangle pattern that has been breaking out to the upside since the March 2016 low. This constitutes an A-triangle B-C wave count. It is rare for a triangle to be in wave two of an impulsive five wave count, therefore counting this rise as an A-B-C corrective wave has the highest probability.
775 price area is my primary target for the completion of five waves. The target is based on 1.618 Fib extension of the wave (A) rise and wave (a) retracement. It's possible the high has been reached (alt count) but this makes wave (4) disproportionately small relative to wave (2).
I believe this is a good opportunity to take some profits and watch for a short opportunity after an impulse down wave.
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Also take note of volume at the Wave (A) high versus volume at the current high. The lower volume at the latest high does not support that this is a third wave of a larger five wave rise. The divergence between price action and volume is suggestive of a turn in the near future.
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Target reached. The minimum requirements for a top have been met but, the alternate count is now my primary opinion for forming a more proportional five wave pattern.
are you suggesting that this may be wave 5 of larger wave 5 then?
Kappy
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No, not certain which time frame you're asking about but, the ABC pattern here is part of a larger corrective pattern. This made me re-examine the big picture so, thank you for the question. I went back to a weekly log scale chart and this is how I see the above fit into the bigger picture.
This correction may seem massive but keep in mind bitcoin introduction goes back to 2009. Bitstamp charts do not have price data prior to 2011-08-15. The bubble that burst in 2013 was a clear five wave rise. Bubbles have long corrections. Time-wise we're at ~2.5 year correction vs. a 5 year rise. I did the math and a little over 3 years would equal 61.8% correction in time.
coinwatcher
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Ah, I see what you mean now. What's the maximum fib retrace for B compared with the ATH (5) generally? It looks like at least .618 to .786
Kappy
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This is not exact but roughly .618 = 766 and .786 = 911