Hi. I think the top is in for this recent bull run, and that we will likely fall significantly from here. I don't think people are taking the downside risk here very seriously. Price was strongly rejected at the weekly 50 EMA (in black) and it's currently being suppressed by the 61.8% retrace, as well as the top of the ribbon on my screen. Not to mention, the NVT is bearish AF. Do what you want. I'm out of BTC until we retest significantly lower prices. The only thing that will make me change that view, is if we breakout above the weekly 50 EMA (in black.) However, I don't see that happening anytime soon.
To think that BTC will just tap the weekly 200 MA/EMA (like it did in December (purple/orange)) and then never test them again before we enter the next bull market, is extremely unlikely. Especially when you consider the log chart. When I look at my log chart, I can see that we still have not yet come into contact with the lower side of the arch. That is still quite a way out, in terms of time and price. It should happen somewhere in the 3000-4000 range. Knowing that, I'm going to sit on the nice pile of cash that I've made since December, and buy one metric F ton of Bitcoin when the time is right. Until then, I will be watching through my binoculars as the bears completely slaughter the naive, complacent, and unsuspecting bulls.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
A month ago ( march 28) you were comparing the current trend to 2015, according to that scenario we will not go lower than 4600-4800 and then start a new bull. Why did you change your mind and thinking about another 1k drop from there?
peakindicator
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@Bateman76, TA is about analysing and choosing direction based on probability. As you get more info the picture may change. Its good to stay objective
MagicPoopCannon
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@Bateman76, I compared the current market to 2015, but I don't recall saying that we won't go lower than 4600-4800. That has never been my view for this transition phase into a bull market. In fact, I have said on multiple occasions that I think we will trend sideways between 6000 and 3500 for the majority of 2019, which would require a dip below 4600-4800. I think you may be confusing me with another analyst. Later
MagicPoopCannon
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@Bateman76, I just read my BTC analysis from March 28th. I never said we wouldn't go lower than 4600-4800. Not sure how you and the 15 people who liked the comment have concluded that. Anyway, thanks for commenting.
Bateman76
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@MagicPoopCannon, Well if BTC should follow the 2015 path, because i also admit there are many similarities, that would be a drawback to 4800 and a bull market from there. Another 30% drop u are talking about DOES NOT follow 2015 patterns. This is why i wrote about the different TAs you are posting here..
Dan_Wang
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@Bateman76, That comment did not explain why you said something that Magicpoop did not say in his analysis back to March?
ceesounds
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@MagicPoopCannon, don't listen to the clowns. #1 characteristic of a money maker is not caring about what everyone else thinks and all the noise.
Bateman76
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@ceesounds, asking something has nothing to do with clowns man, i just checked the guys last few TAs and saw some interesting differences. Anyway, a 30% drop from here is possible, just as a 30% rise.
ceesounds
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@Bateman76, I am sorry if you were offended. I was not refering to you or your comment, just giving poopcoin some general motivation. sorry if it came off that way.
ceesounds
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He knows what he is talking about and its easy to get lost in the noise. Truth be told, the one who makes moves other are not making will be the one who is successful. Can't follow the heard with this. again, sorry if it came off wrong.