BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I modified the original indicator to have a production cost of a single bitcoin updated to today. I believe that this value will act as support.

Comments

Good one - as always. I am following you and your blog for maybe 5 years already and have recommended it to many friends as you seem to be one of the most competent traders I've seen.
Unfortunately this panic sale might not stop, but we can always hope that we don't break the trend. Do you think if we break it that bitcoin can recover to new highs after that?
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@linkerlinks, Hi thanks. It can recover but a model is a model, a violation of the lower 95% confidence level is not good at all, if it happens i've to discard this approach and use something different like KAMA + deviation BANDS applied to the monthly chart , support is 3200$-4200$ with Kama bands. The trend is still valid even with a double bottom at 3200$
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linkerlinks UnknownUnicorn30297
@UnknownUnicorn30297, Thanks for answering.
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what if your new model doesn't work out?
what are you gonna do?

Look what I drew.
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large miners can withstand some stress, perhaps even a good thing for them as smaller miners go bust before the halving... just thinking out loud
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@DanielLt, they earned tons of money in the last years, a smart miner can sustain some losses IMO
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DanielLt UnknownUnicorn30297
@UnknownUnicorn30297, Why someone would put Sell walls in a massive sell off? This is just one more of many manipulations, the price needs to go down... someone decided and Corona just helped them achieve this
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@DanielLt, yes but the chart always discount everything, don't worry about manipulations.
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DanielLt UnknownUnicorn30297
@UnknownUnicorn30297, yes I understand your graph, but it doesnt take into consideration the human factor, the fear that has spread. The price can and probably will go back to the level in the graph... but how low could it go? no one knows and I dont want to be in this train, already lost enough during this sell off.
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@DanielLt, the chart itself is the result of "human factor", think about it.
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