In last week’s analysis, we ran through BTC’s potential Wyckoff distribution stage. Looking through the basics of Wyckoff market cycles while analyzing the potential cycle which is occurring, as demonstrated below. Showing that BTC could be potentially overbought. During this report it was stated that BTC could see an imminent drop , that BTC was showing signs of weakness – it would only be a matter of time until the BTC price fell from a cliff .
However, Bitcoin has had a surprising rally over the past few days, seeing BTC increase from just over $9000 USD pushing towards $10700 USD. This represented over a 10% gain over a 7 day period. Although is this push an exit plan for the larger players – allowing them to set up a trap? Or is it the start of a new BTC trend?
We should note that the is at an extremely high level, meaning that a small retracement is likely. If BTC can use the 20 MA (centerline) from the BB as support, allowing for the to recover then this would point towards questions of the Wyckoff analysis indicating the LPSY too early. On the other hand, if BTC is not supported by the center line and proceeds to touch the lower band, then this would be a huge indicator – suggesting that a major reversal from the previous uptrend from March is in place. Therefore maintaining the current Wyckoff analysis.
The first target for BTC should have been $10250 USD. Which was broken above, invalidating the recent Wyckoff analysis? This represented a 6.25% gain.
The second target is 10 750. A break above would represent over a 7% gain.
The first target would be a break below $9000 USD. A break below this would represent a 6.25% loss, a drop here would majorly increase the likelihood of a major breakdown in price.
The second target would be $8620 USD. A fall below this level would certify the new price wave, representing a 24% loss from BTCs current position.
What do you think happens with BTC next? Share your thoughts in the comments!