DrJLT
Short

Bitcoin bounce may be short-lived (double top)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Got this idea as Bitcoin has been falling for six days --- the last time it had 6 red candles was from the top, a 50% fall in 6 days.

Obviously, this fall hasn't been as dramatic, merely 25% in 6 days, but there're other similarities:

  • Last time, after 6 red candles, we bounced at 50D MA; this time, it was 200D, after three days flirting with it. This makes it look like a technical bounce instead of real demand.
  • We had confirmed double top three days ago (neckline 9.6k) that hasn't been broken & target not reached.
  • We're still below 50D MA.
  • Still below long-term trend line (should be a resistance now).
  • Of course that downward channel .
  • The overall volume is still low & on the daily chart we aren't really oversold.

For these reasons, I don't think bitcoin will go above 10k. Instead, 7.5k, 6k, & 3.5k are three targets I think more likely to play out.

Having said all that, this is a funny market more than bitcoin is funny money. Maybe it's the beginning of an extremely bullish rally to 100k.
Mar 12
Comment: the question is which of the targets will be the lowest.
Mar 14
Comment: definitively under 200D MA

will crash to 6k at least
Mar 14
Comment: may see some green in the next 24h before the crash. 200d sma will be the high
Mar 14
Comment: I meant the highest possible high. could very well be lower than that
Mar 15
Comment: indeed a "green" day. but we're stuck at .386. I think the crash will come soon.

perhaps by sunday we'll see 6k
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