Re-pulished! This anaylsis is with a different timing approach, but with the same target. A few of you know my post "Bad news for bears!" I made a clear statement: We had the bottom at 31K! I stand by it. This range should be our bottom.
Sorry for the re-pulishing! My first post was banned because I unfortunately violated the house rules. Maybe you can please like it again and support me so that the post gets a good ranking again. I hope this one is okay.
I have now studied the timing even more intensively. And have a second approach: we can also see the top in June/July 2022. This further means that it goes up from now on, just a little slower. For the swing traders among us, this means more sideways movements and thus more opportunities for good trades. ;-)
Let me briefly explain the chart: Everyone knows Bitcoin has a strong 0.5 tendency at Fib. The Fib channel shows us where the 0.5 was last time. The formation matches with the current one. So current point could be 0.5, too. This also matches with the trendlines which we can draw from the halving tops to the current dips.
Let me explain my timing ideas to you now. So let's look at the important dates of BTC .
First top: 08 Jun 11 ($31.90) First low after top: 18 Nov 11 ($2.25) First Halving: 28 Nov 12 ($12.10) First Halving Top: 30 Nov 13 ($1,163.00) Top was after 743 days from the low and 367 after first halving.
Second low after Halving Top: Jan 14 15 ($152. 40 ) Second Halving: 09 Jul 16 ($626.00) Second Halving Top: 17 Dec 17 ($19,666.00) Top was after 1068 days from the lowest point and 526 after second halving
Next halving is March 18, 2024 btw.
If I continue the time line and factor accordingly then the next Halving Top would be around 1300 days from the low and around 750 days from the Halving. Assuming a logarhytmic price development (from 0.5 to 1 for LogFibs) the price would be around 230/250k (min 115k).
Accordingly, I do not expect any more major price corrections. Perhaps we will have another dip in the direction of 30k. But I do not see more at the moment.
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Let's see what happens. Happy trading. :-)
BTCINVESTING
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My 1. Post "Bad news for bears!" May 31, 2021
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My Post Apr 18, 2021
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My Post Nov 19, 2020
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My Post Apr 15, 2019 (2 year ago!). I was one of the first btw. ;-)
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Bullish Engulfing at its best imo!
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we are still on track, my friends.
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fear and greed index at 10. bulls will be back. soon. :-)
This is a little too bullish for my liking. Such a speedy recovery and huge pump will need a lot of positive news to bring confidence back and right now I do not see this happening. My guess is that by July we will go back to 60k and after that we can start the next leg up, but to expect that we jump so much so soon is a little bit of a hopium imo.
phreum
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@busyjordy12, I think you might be missing that his prediction of the high is for 2022, not 2021... Forgive me if I'm wrong...
@busyjordy12, have you not been paying attention to all the bullishnaf news all over the place?
TheMasons
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I think this path
CryptoidiotQ
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not too far from the model I've always followed. I agree completely, tho I wouldn't be surprised for a slightly lower dip (24-29k range at most imo) before the real recovery. So many toilet paper hands getting shook out lol