This is my first published idea and would enjoy any feedback you may have. With that said this is what I see.
Over the last few week we have completed what appears to be waves A and B of an ABC correction. Bitcoin's last two ABC corrections have corrected to the .786 but this B has fallen short of .618 which had me expecting further correction until this morning.
We are currently sitting in a bull flag at the 9600 level that should break up toward the 9840 level, this should complete a leading diagonal of wave 1.
From there a retrace to the 9100 level should take place as the market is getting oversold on RSI.
Using fib extension gives us a target of 1:1 at 10700 for wave 3. This also happens to be the edge of the downtrend channel. This would be an ideal area for a correction which would be wave 4.
Finally with BTC last push up we should experience a flurry of buying as we break the downtrend channel and push wave 5 to the 2.618 ext. level at $13,000
We should then see a correction back to the .5 retrace which is also the outer edge of the downtrend channel (our now neckline of the inverse head and shoulders) confirming the end of the downtrend and setting the base of wave 2 of the larger 5 wave as we make our way back toward $20,000.
As always I'm still new to trading so these are just ideas I see please don't take them as advice on how to trade.
Over the last few week we have completed what appears to be waves A and B of an ABC correction. Bitcoin's last two ABC corrections have corrected to the .786 but this B has fallen short of .618 which had me expecting further correction until this morning.
We are currently sitting in a bull flag at the 9600 level that should break up toward the 9840 level, this should complete a leading diagonal of wave 1.
From there a retrace to the 9100 level should take place as the market is getting oversold on RSI.
Using fib extension gives us a target of 1:1 at 10700 for wave 3. This also happens to be the edge of the downtrend channel. This would be an ideal area for a correction which would be wave 4.
Finally with BTC last push up we should experience a flurry of buying as we break the downtrend channel and push wave 5 to the 2.618 ext. level at $13,000
We should then see a correction back to the .5 retrace which is also the outer edge of the downtrend channel (our now neckline of the inverse head and shoulders) confirming the end of the downtrend and setting the base of wave 2 of the larger 5 wave as we make our way back toward $20,000.
As always I'm still new to trading so these are just ideas I see please don't take them as advice on how to trade.
Comment:
Looks like the potential wave on has completed just above my target and the potential wave 2 has completed just below my target. Now we shall see if this retracement holds it should complete here shortly around the 9400 level. If the retracement from that level sets a higher low we should know that this potential path is still in play. Word of warning this thing could always roll over and we could have just set wave 1 of our 3rd wave down. If that's the case I'll see you below 4700. Good luck to all you traders.
Comment:
And down it goes, First target 7200 second target 6000.
Comment:
This is a good example of the things I have to learn. Not so much about technical movement but more about emotional bias. Frustrations in a bear market has cost me not money but opportunity for gains. I should have notice the ABC pattern. A - 9000, B- 9300 and C down to 8742. Easy to see in hindsight but controlling emotion in the moment is something I have to work on.