VWAP McStinkypants

Charting Herd Mentality and Investor Psychology.

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
879 3 8
I originally posted this EW count on 12/6 and I've been posting it every morning in the chat with zero updates other than the sub wave counts. Enough people have asked for it that I thought I'd publish. First, it's important to note that I'm analyzing from a completely neutral standpoint. I don't care if BTC goes to $1mm or $1. I'm simply observing/ charting psychological behavior.

The main take away from this chart is the irrationally euphoric parabolic rise and subsequent "fall from grace". This momo pattern can be seen in so many 2000 tech stocks and more recently AAPL             or TSLA             . Once momentum is broken, the initial retreat is fast and hard followed by the "it's too cheap" bounce (momo is trying to regain) unfortunately the psychological trend has long since been broken and what is left are the corrective waves down. (the underlying security is left to it's own merits and not driven by easy money).

I'm amazed at how closely the market followed the freehand wave count (orange wave down) I drew on 12/6. It'll be interesting to watch over the coming months.
Again, I have no vested interested in the success or failure of BTC but I believe it will not have a future until it's regulated and the wild fluctuations are neutralized. Businesses will not adopt a currency that could potentially squeeze margins or cause losses from recently sold product. Once regulations and taxation come into play, BTC will either "die on the vine" or "shoot the moon". (see the end of wave 5 down :)
$100 is achievable? past the accepted price?
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Nice work but I don't necessarily agree with your final analysis about the future of Bitcoin. Businesses could convert their BTC to USD immediately after the transaction is complete.

Bitcoin is so much more than a currency. In fact, I think it is more of a commodity. The value in Bitcoin is in the blockchain technology and the physical network itself. The Bitcoin network is the most power distributed computer network ever built, and that has to be worth something.

There will be other uses and inventions built around Bitcoin just like the Internet. Bitcoin is the protocol and the foundation of bigger things to come.
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Have an update?
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