Not a financial advice. Just a log to test an analysis.
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Next lower target of 8400 fails = 7200 USD/BTC
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Typo: of = *if
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..testing "success rate" of an analysis to make adjustments to my script. Need BTC/USD to retrace for a possible "Altcoins Run" base on historical BTC-dominance chart.
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Confirmation when BTC drops below 11k. Rejection of analysis if BTC goes above 14k and finds strong support.
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If BTC continues to stay about the red-line at such early stage of the bull market (which coincide with the 2nd bullish phase of the previous one starting in 2016); then this would mean that this bull market is significantly different (i.e. more aggressively bullish) compared to the previous trend!
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typo: about = *above
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The more immediate support level according to the FSBGB is at ca. 10400 USD atm.
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>> Have we skipped the first "FSBGB historical phase" of the bear market, and went straight into the second? Time will tell. i.e. does BTC retests and finds strong support above the red FSBGB line, or does it retrace and oscillate for awhile under the red FSBGB line.
Looks like BTC is heading down predicted level. Looking at the Ichi-cloud and BB, it is likely the drop down to 8400 might be for only a relatively short period (either a wick downwards then up, or going sideways for a relatively short duration, up to 2 weeks, to get rid of weak hands and for smart buyers to accumulate) before heading back up again.
Meanwhile, minor (selected) altcoin pump incoming?
I agree. Too much GREED in this market. Everyone now thinks that buying Bitcoin is free money.
cybernetwork
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@mightytrader, Exactly! Most of the other analysis are long, and everyone is saying that we are gonna hit 16k soon. :)
mightytrader
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@cybernetwork, My entry was $12,720... about 48 hours ago. I took profit at $11,320. Too scary to short for any longer. The pay off is not worth it with the amount of stress. I do not know when/if Bitcoin will DUMP to sub-9k and I wouldn't bet on it. I took my profits and buy ZCash for long term trade. The benefit is that there are institutions buying it and I don't need any leverage whatsoever... Plus it is trending UP since the spring. Nice pullback at $88. Christmas in July!
cybernetwork
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@mightytrader, my "trading" stash is only a 5% of my tiny stake that I had been significantly cost-averaging in 70% of my monthly salary from 6k downt o 3k level and up to 8k level.. :) So that I wouldn't feel I have to FOMO in if it continues parabolic upwards. But I can relate to those feelings. When BTC goes crazy, it is kinda difficult to predict how it will behave.
I'm only basing and testing my predictions base on previous (historical) trends vs. my FSBGB levels (basically a mesh of moving averages modified with fib levels in a particular way). The trend seems to interact significant at each levels (even the minor ones) base on past chart behaviors.
cybernetwork
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@cybernetwork, I'm only trading 0.5% of my overall holdings. :) Gonna stick to this trade just for the sake of being discipline -- unless the charts tells me otherwise.
I'm also relying on BB, ichi-cloud, RSI and STOCHRSI + line-trends as well.
cybernetwork
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If BTC goes higher, I'd expect it to land at 15k, or even up to 18k according to the FSBGB levels. I will have to look at other indicators to be more precise. But will probably start cost-average sell a little more (up to another 0.5% of my BTC holding) from 16k and above perhaps -- need to reassess my trade if that happens.