Given bitcoin had 2 instances of dropping more than 80% in its history, I think it might be in its 3rd of such big move. A simple extrapolation indicates it might bottom around April 2022 with a price tag $12,000.
People see it differently and have different views and that is more than healthy and OK. Definitely I can be wrong but I personally will not touch bitcoin in the next 6 to 10 months as both technicals and price actions are horrible on the weekly chart as you can see.
Bottom of a bear market never reaches the top of previous bullrun. If you insist on sticking to the history. So BTC should never drop to 20k ever again.
A-shot
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@Mikanoshi, Simple diagonal support still shows 22-25 k is possible even with this thesis. Also lower highs are a concern