I know i just posted a few minutes ago so i wont post again for a while after this as i don't want to spam but something i am curious about is this.....
Who bought in to this blue zone?
Who bought in to this red zone?
What's your opinion on this?
Red zone, perhaps mostly a mix of smart money(?), technology enthusiasts who like the tech and people who owned bitcoin for a while and now re-investing? Were big institutions involved during this fast run up? (red zone). So this red zone would likely be a solid foundation if accurate?
Blue zone, do you think this blue zone is fresh money from people who heard you can make some fast easy money? Maybe read about this weird thing called 'bitcoin' in the newspaper?
The reason i'm wondering about this is i'm trying to think which section of the mountain is solid foundation and which part is built on sand (weak hands) as they will surely sell fast (panic sell).
I was waiting for Bitcoin to drop down to the low 3k mark, i've seen a lot of greattechnical analysis that looks good going down to 3k and 2k but i didn't see 2k being possible due to many people waiting to buy at around $3000.
But i've started to really think if we're going to 3k, then we actually might go all the way down to 2k.
Bitcoin came into fame in August (lots of media attention) and i think this is largely what drove up it's price rapidly to 5k, but all these new people who suddenly joined in on Bitcoin are now looking at 20-30% losses right off the bat, welcome to crypto, here's your 20-30% loss, eeeekkkkk! That's gotta hurt!
So i wonder if this sour taste that has been left in a lot the new Bitcoin investors will drive the price down to low $2000 instead of the previously more realistic $3000.
If we get into low $3000, i really think this is when all those new investors at the top of mountain (the sandy part with weak hands) who have not invested in anything before start to really panic sell and pull the plug (fast crash from 3k to 2k?).
So i guess this leads me to this, on the run up from around 3k to 5k per bitcoin, where did this all this extra market cap come from? Smart big money institutions? Or was it Jane & Bob, your friendly next door neighbor who read about Bitcoin in the news, have no idea what it does but heard you can get LAMBOS from it lol..... if so i really can see a panic sell off as soon as we get into low 3k mark.
What do you think? Too much overthinking it? Or is there some merit in any of these thoughts?
Really depends who you ask.
Personally I would say the rise from July on was covered by a lot of hype, that being said hype alone doesn't carry a market.
I guess it is public knowledge that the market is being played by "whales", as it always has been.
In example the bounce back from 3k, while (I confess I took this as rumor) a single buyer caused most of this bounce, the market participants and bots just followed.
Now all you and me can do is guess, but I agree with your general sentiment that the market is highly emotional and breaking 3500, the FIB at 3400 and hitting 3000 could drive the market way down, until when the market players react again to flush out the weak hands.
On a second note, it's never wrong to think about these things, being skeptical of a highly volatile market is always a better choice than blindly buying and typing "HODL" all the time BTC takes a hit.
For now I don't see BTC going below 2000, may be as you say the buyers in the red circle are of a different kind, but who exactly knows. Below 3000 is a valid scenario at this point though (imo).
veltto_keksi
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Out of interest, at what point did you start investing in cryptos? I would also say the smart money came before the red zone (April in that cycle). But all types of investors are found in all cycles. It's just the point in the cycle that determines the type of investor. Smart money buys in the beginning of the cycle, idiots buy just before the top. I got in at 1400 after reading a very interesting article called "The Golden Age of Cryptocurrency" which convinced me that it was a good time to invest. Much gratitude to Yoda.
goldbug1
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Nice kayb100, I think smart money came in before the red zone, then awareness made buyers in the red zone, then fools jumped in with all guns blazing in the blue!
Icecoldsteve
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Two whales bought for 231K and 643K USD worth of bitcoin a couple of hours ago on Bitfinex to make the price shoot up. They will take profit and then the price will go down again. Cant get rid of the feeling this whole market is rigged and controlled somehow :(
jlhequities
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If you bought something with the expectation its going up and the price returns to your buy price, do you buy it again at the same price, or do you wait to see if it goes lower? Will the same support be there as it was the 1st time? well What does 4,000, 3,500 say?
Personally I would say the rise from July on was covered by a lot of hype, that being said hype alone doesn't carry a market.
I guess it is public knowledge that the market is being played by "whales", as it always has been.
In example the bounce back from 3k, while (I confess I took this as rumor) a single buyer caused most of this bounce, the market participants and bots just followed.
Now all you and me can do is guess, but I agree with your general sentiment that the market is highly emotional and breaking 3500, the FIB at 3400 and hitting 3000 could drive the market way down, until when the market players react again to flush out the weak hands.
On a second note, it's never wrong to think about these things, being skeptical of a highly volatile market is always a better choice than blindly buying and typing "HODL" all the time BTC takes a hit.
For now I don't see BTC going below 2000, may be as you say the buyers in the red circle are of a different kind, but who exactly knows. Below 3000 is a valid scenario at this point though (imo).