Two weeks ago I mentioned about weekly 200EMA being a significant resistance and weekly 200MA being a crucial support. Bitcoin has been trading between these ranges since and was not able to surpass weekly 200EMA in a number of occasions. In addition, if you see on the chart, daily 50EMA is now touching the weekly 200EMA acting as another layer of resistance. On top of that, Bitcoin is currently printing lower high on the chart.
At this point in time, the momentum seems to be fading away. The bulls need further confirmation to reignite the fuel to break through the weekly 200EMA resistance (and neckline of ). This is the reason I came up with the below 2x speculative scenarios:
Bullish scenario 1: The bulls are waiting to buy at a lower price/more significant support. There is a possible harmonics formation in which the D point coincides with the price structure where the move from recent swing low ($3150) to recent swing high ($4220) started. This is also where the weekly 200MA is going to converge into. Hence why I anticipate the possible symmetrical triangle. If this plays out, there is a much higher probability that Bitcoin could complete the right shoulder.
Bullish scenario 2: forming with the top of overlaps with the weekly 200EMA resistance. This means that the buyers are willing to buy at a higher price (thus creating higher low) towards the resistance leading to a possible breakout.
Even if Bitcoin breaks above the it does not mean Bitcoin has now gone from a bear market to a bull market. What we really want to see is a retest of weekly 200MA and confirm it another time as support (ie. ), or some kind of sideways/consolidations between $3150 - $4300 to consider it a possible bear market bottom. If any candle closes below the recent swing low, then the possible scenarios are invalidated.
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Thanks for all your support in 2018. Let’s continue our trading journey together. Don’t hesitate to leave any question in the comments section below. I am more than happy to assist.
I have set up some goals for 2019:
1. Lose another 8kgs on top of 24kgs that I have lost in 2018, through exercise and eating healthy
2. Spend 3 hours+ per day on educating myself on trading and backtesting
3. Increase my winning percentage by 5% or more
4. To reach 5000 followers on TradingView
What are your goals for 2019?
***Please note this post is for educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy/sell***
Don't buy now hoping it will break to the upside as you are simply guessing. Always wait for a retracement to buy low or wait for confirmation of a breakout.
95% of traders were telling people to buy in anticipation of a breakout while we stay disciplined. Bitcoin has dropped 12% since I gave out the warning on the 9th Jan.
Right now I see a possible downtrend channel.
Bullish case - go up now and find resistance between 0.5-0.618 retrace (also ab=cd) before another leg down
Bearish case - going down towards $3435 - 3200 and possibly find support there (remember weekly 200MA & Gartley are both at the same price level acting as support)
The best time to buy is when Bitcoin shows some reversal signal at the $3435 - 3200 range, such as double bottom on a smaller time frame, slowing down of bearish momentum, 4hr or daily engulfing candle ....etc (depending on your strategy)
Basically BTC is still ranging and within the possible triangle that I mentioned since a couple of weeks ago. However, there is a possibility that the bottom of the triangle has been shifted up. If that's the case then it means BTC could go up and retest the top of the triangle + the more significant structure around $4000.
If you compare BTC with ETH & LTC, both ETH & LTC are showing weakness.
The best thing to do now is to be patient and wait for market to show confirmation.
Conversely, if you are waiting to long, it's now time to spot for possible trend reversal.
If Bitcoin breaks above the consolidation range with volume, I will enter a scalp on pullback and see if I can turn a scalp into a swing trade. This way you are risking small capitals in exchange for huge returns.
Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks down the range, I will wait for possible buy around $3180 - $3340 (which is the initial bullish setup that I posted on the 5th Jan)
Clearly, Bitcoin hit the D point of the Gartley pattern almost to the spot, As well, it hits right on the weekly 200MA.
It's not a double bottom X and D wave. It's called Gartley pattern.
Range trading between 1400 days EMA and 1400 days200MA.
In addition, 9 days moving average line cross over 25 days moving average for 21 days. Go flat.
Standing above 25 days moving average for 19 days, and this line is going up slightly for 8 days.
Overall, it is quasi-bullish. I guess after washing out some floating lockup position, then price could be going up.
My main goal for 2019 is actually renting out my first property and add 3kg of muscle weight. That's it really XD
By the way what's your take on the S&P500 and global markets in general
I hear a lot of Fud there but its mainly due to fundamental issues that's been around for decades (too much debt, etc). Plus about issues that cause uncertainty buthave been shown to be just a little 'glitch' in the past (Europe problems, Global Slowdown, Fed Hikes, GeoPolitics)
Feels like all the Stock market problems would get solved if the Fed turns Dovish. You agree?
Would you make a TA analysis on S&P? That'd be really interesting
From a weekly perspective, S&P500 has hit significant support at weekly 200MA. Not only that, S&P has hit long term trend line since 2009. However, you don't want to catch the knife, let the pattern to emerge to prove to you that the bottom is in. Use 2009 as an example, there was a V shape + inverse h&s. You could buy 30% at 960. And buy more later on when it breaks above weekly 200MA. This is one way that you could trade.
Then if you zoom in to daily chart, you can see the recent selling climax and what often ensues after a selling climax is a huge reversal (relief) and this is what's happening right now. So what you want to focus now is to find the resistance to sell (whether you are buying (lock in profits) or shorting). And how to find the resistance? First resistance is at 0.5 retracement. Second resistance is determined by possible AB=CD, which confluence with the neckline and 0.618 - 0.786 retracement.
The current crash is different to 2008 as there is no significant affair that's impacting on the economy. It looks to me that the recent volatility is caused by irrational decisions. SPX has dropped 21% from the all-time-high. By looking at historical data, a 21% drop without any significant fundamental issues is substantial. As a result, I would be more interested in buying then selling. But again, I need to wait till a pattern to emerge to prove to me the bottom is in.
I was fearing this. I shorted the SnP big time but I quickly realiseed the only reason it went down so much is because all these fears of doom and gloom were getting priced in already.
Plus a strong retracement is expected after such a deep fall without a real reason like you said
Thanks a lot TB! I'll be following these levels more closely