August will be bearish for bitcoin. We will continue the downtrend that started on July 24th for a few weeks. This is based on my hypothesis that the market is heavily overbought and overleveraged mainly due to a credit bubble occuring on bitfinex (which started in May). I think we will see margin calls during this time and even a flash crash. Without any buying pressure the leveraged longs are crumbling under the 60% per year overextended bulls are paying in interest for loans.
Comments
HerSerenity
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You might want to consider the credits from OKCoin as well, its volume is way above Bitfinex'.
Interesting point for sure, never thought about that.
ChartArt
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I fully agree that the last move was a bull trap. It happened almost like I expected two days ago (sadly I didn't post a chart with a forecast). Only that we broke above 600 US Dollar and didn't stay under this important resistance made me wonder. This is exactly what will give most people the false impression that the price is going up, while we are still inside this larger overall downtrend.
The bears on TradingView seem to be still in minority. I'm like you very bearish and posted a chart supporting my view: tradingview.com/v/7mPxsnSP/
Interesting point for sure, never thought about that.