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Stage 1: The Uptrending Bullmarket
Bitcoin / USD was in a bullmarket for about two full months, without nearly any big retracement we found ourselves move 40% upwards in a very steady time. Not just BTC , but the whole world was . Legacy markets flourished.
Stage 2: Corona
COVID-19 came. Ouch. We went from $10,500 to $3850 in a month. The biggest drop started when Trump announced that European travel will be banned.
Stage 3: Recovery
Even though the unemployment rates skyrocketed, and COVID-19 got worse every day, the majority of the panic was gone. We've seen an incredible recover, close to our previous high!
Stage 4: Contemplation
Some more bad news came in, new daily COVID-19 cases are at a world high right now as new markets start to face issues. The world is raging over GF . Lot's of bad news is coming out about how companies struggled financially, and all it has done so far is added just enough bears to keep the price stable.
Stage 5: New Direction
After one month of non-stop bad news, it's pretty impressive that we have only seen a sideways movement. This means that the market is still inherently , but that positive price action is being stopped just temporarily. It is only a matter of time before more good news will come out, some more progress about a vaccine might be made, public statements against racial discrimination or police violence might come up, etc. This will remove those bears from the markets and will make prices surge again. My advice is to go long for this reason, but try to leverage the current contemplation period to buy as low as you can. Anywhere you can buy below $9000 is a great win.
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This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
My overall idea doesn’t change yet, read it carefully and see that I mention waiting for a dip to get a great entry in for a long position. This is that moment, make sure you don’t panic sell and accumulate bitcoin for this great price.
Also I’d like to take the opportunity to thank the TradingView team for adding this idea to their Editor’s Pick. This is a great achievement for me, and very encouraging for people relatively new to the platform like I am. Thanks everyone who has been supporting me a lot with their likes and their comments over the last few months!
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Waiting for a plausible explanation ...
Got to say. Pretty sick of all the fake pleasantness and a.. kissing here. Hardly any meaningful analysis and a whole lot of payed subscribers recruiting.
A possible explanation that both actual gold and bitcoin (if we assume for a second here it's "digital" gold) dropped during Corona is that people are just taking their money out of the market in general. People get scared and don't want to have their assets into investments, but rather have them available in liquid form to make sure they can provide for their families if something really serious happens.
A second explanation for Bitcoin is that crypto still has a status of "fun" or "experimental" more than "serious investment". When the world has serious turmoil going on, the priority of cryptocurrency investing moves to a lower place, making people take their money out of bitcoin and putting it in their pocket or legacy markets instead.
A third explanation is that there is a lot of profit to be gained if you put your money into the market after a big crash. People might take their money out of the safer investments and put them into the more risky investments knowing they can get a higher return there.
Curious to hear your thoughts!
I mean tradingview in general. I have a look at the profiles of most authors that I stumble upon and pretty much everywhere (including your profile) there is all adulation and thankfulness and zero critique. Even in your profile I saw a bunch of trades some of which that have went against you and there were obvious signs that your calls were incorrect or at least quite risky.
I will leave it up to you if you deem me worthy of such a follow :).
Go ahead and digitize your lunch :)
The actual, long-term value of a bitcoin, I believe, is derived from the costs associated with producing (mining) one. The speculative, volatile value that we see bouncing around every corner of a chart is not the real value of a coin, and I think you would agree. I do believe, however, that the costs associated with mining one bitcoin acts as a (albeit weak) "central tendency" to the speculative value.
For sure we are all very early adopters still, and there is serious value in this space. It has gotten to this point already because of this, but the question that becomes what is the long-term value of bitcoin specifically. Why bitcoin? Why not any other cryptocurrency?
Blockchain technology is noteworthy as well, it truly is potentially revolutionary stuff. I don't believe the potential value behind blockchain tech has to necessarily reflect the price of a digital asset though, so I left that thought out of my original comment.