I'm a simple TA'r, I think some over-analyze these charts. Let's look at the big picture.
- BTC has been in a downward channel all year. It rallied hard back to long term support after it was broken earlier this year. - It looks like the downward channel has been extended. There has been heavy selling as of late, and it established another point of resistance to break for a continued rally. - BTC has a history of responding to H&S formations. There is a giant head and shoulders forming, however it has not yet completed for confirmation. - Segwit will start to be used on Coinbase! Just added to Bitfinex. (Not related to TA, but related to BTC moving up a lot).
So here's my strategy for a long position: - Let's wait for a rally off long-term support. I'm suggesting purchasing 50% of the position on a bounce off of this support, and then another 50% on the breakout of the downward channel. - Another option is to buy the first 50% with 25% on support line and 25% on bounce of support. This is more risky, however it appears BTC is about ready to make a move up. - Both of these mitigate risk of loss buy not buying all on support line. If the support line breaks and goes down, use a stop-loss at 8700. If it breaks that, we are most likely going lower as we are in a giant downward channel still. - On breakout of rally, we have confirmation of H&S formation and have exited a giant downward channel. The likelihood of a rally much higher is very likely. Let's go ahead and place the remaining 50% position.
** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS!! **
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FYI, I'm identifying long-term support at 9400. Note that this chart is dependent on Bitfinex exchange, which is trading lower now than GDAX and Gemini. I'm using this chart to identify when to buy, even if I am buying at a higher level on GDAX/Gemini. I'm about to start laddering buys.
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Started ladder buying, price is in my pink buying zone. Placing limits for buys around support.
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100% into my position right now. BTC has had a habit lately of not quite reaching targets. I'm assuming a bit more risk here but also betting on a higher upside.
Trade closed manually
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So, BTCSHORTS are rising faster than anything! I closed this position until we have a confirmation of a bottom.
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Oops, that chart wans't updated. Here are shorts, you can see they are rising out of control. Last time this happened we went to 6k.
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I've reopened this trade. BTC absolutely smacked on the 9400 line and then showed heavy buying. BTCUSDSHORTS have started to taper off, have a feeling a lot of those will be eaten and shoot BTC price up further (need to buy a short to close it, right?).
@primbech, I'm actually seeing the opposite, HEAVY volume the last hour or so with no heavy selling. I've went the riskier route and entered 100% into my position, because I see big upside here. The last time I saw this, I didn't listen to my gut (but the other TA'ers) and it rallied hard out of the blue.
Zakir-Ahmed
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IT CAN COME TO 8K ...THIS IS VERY BIF DROP
markoshust
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@ghose12, I'm now agreeing with you, it can. Let's wait on confirmation of bottom before continuing with this trade.