Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
After the break higher Bitcoin has spent the night consolidating recent gains.
It's a buy again once the dynamic from the overhight high has been broken above with
stops below the 9224 line when the dynamic is broken above.
Until then Bitcoin is still in consolidating mode and moving sideways to unwind using
the 9175 line as support as it does so. So near term neutral. Has to break below 9130
on Bitstamp to turn negative back to 9011 .
But so far price action is positive and it should break higher again later so long as the
9175 line and the 9130 level at lowest continues to hold from here.
The next resistance lies at 9482 and then 9887 and the uppermost parallel.
As things currently stand we have a decent chance of retesting it later this weekend.
22:32gmt 17:32est Last Update
Target achieved -should come back some - if still long raise stop again to 9148
Comment:
Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Update
Next Long shot for Day traders
A stop hunt by the look of this so far in the hour before US wakes - institutions looking for cheap coin before the weekend maybe.
Looks like 2 ways out from here - it gets forced down to the 9254 line at lowest before it rallies again - or it can also break back above the little dynamic from the day's high and start to attract more buyers from there.
There's 50 or so points downside and 500 upside from here if this call is to stay good
and two/three potential buy points.
Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Bigger Shot
Bitcoin Bitfinex Closer
So far what looks to be a small continuation pattern - a buy on exit of the upper dynamic with stops 30 or more below same line when broken to upside
Next Long shot for Day traders
A stop hunt by the look of this so far in the hour before US wakes - institutions looking for cheap coin before the weekend maybe.
Looks like 2 ways out from here - it gets forced down to the 9254 line at lowest before it rallies again - or it can also break back above the little dynamic from the day's high and start to attract more buyers from there.
There's 50 or so points downside and 500 upside from here if this call is to stay good
and two/three potential buy points.
Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Bigger Shot
Bitcoin Bitfinex Closer
So far what looks to be a small continuation pattern - a buy on exit of the upper dynamic with stops 30 or more below same line when broken to upside
Comment:
Bitcoin Bitstamp
Limit down now on the parallel - has to hold now or the bears will hold sway again
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
This long is getting trickier and trickier
Although Bitcoin is slowly grinding higher off the 9162 support line and now off the next line above it at 9198, the pattern it's making as the day wears on is a little unnerving. It looks ominously like a bear flag in formation.
Need to be watchful that a near term bull trap doesn't develop here - feels like a bot march higher again right now with little additional human interest evident inside the flag except for those caught both long and short inside of it.
Despite the potential for a bear flag forming this pattern can also (frustratingly) be a bull flag formation - sorry, that's so annoying - but it can be. But a bull flag looking like that is for sure rarer than a bear flag looking like that.
Nevertheless, it's Bitcoin. It can still escape from here whilst it holds the smallest parallel under price now - parallels within parallels within parallels right now - but it needs some more buyers to arrrive soon or this will end up failing first before the next rally can begin again.
Despite the danger am staying long for a push towards the upper parallel of the flag.
The risk remains that it can run out of steam at 9300 and indeed looks to be doing as this is written.
So can either raise stops high, to just under 9254 or the alternative is to leave any long stops under the 9162 line by 15 points or so.
From there, if the lower parallel of the flag then gives way at any point later today and it falls below 9150 it will likely fall back to the 8940 line and the lower parallel, offering a good shorting opportunity if it comes later, at which point will be looking to buy or reverse long once more.
Limit down now on the parallel - has to hold now or the bears will hold sway again
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
This long is getting trickier and trickier
Although Bitcoin is slowly grinding higher off the 9162 support line and now off the next line above it at 9198, the pattern it's making as the day wears on is a little unnerving. It looks ominously like a bear flag in formation.
Need to be watchful that a near term bull trap doesn't develop here - feels like a bot march higher again right now with little additional human interest evident inside the flag except for those caught both long and short inside of it.
Despite the potential for a bear flag forming this pattern can also (frustratingly) be a bull flag formation - sorry, that's so annoying - but it can be. But a bull flag looking like that is for sure rarer than a bear flag looking like that.
Nevertheless, it's Bitcoin. It can still escape from here whilst it holds the smallest parallel under price now - parallels within parallels within parallels right now - but it needs some more buyers to arrrive soon or this will end up failing first before the next rally can begin again.
Despite the danger am staying long for a push towards the upper parallel of the flag.
The risk remains that it can run out of steam at 9300 and indeed looks to be doing as this is written.
So can either raise stops high, to just under 9254 or the alternative is to leave any long stops under the 9162 line by 15 points or so.
From there, if the lower parallel of the flag then gives way at any point later today and it falls below 9150 it will likely fall back to the 8940 line and the lower parallel, offering a good shorting opportunity if it comes later, at which point will be looking to buy or reverse long once more.
Comment:
Bitstamp Update
Bitfinex Chart Update
Comment:
Not a good day for being a bull so far that's for sure. Sorry for over-bullish tenor of earlier comment. Forced to change tack
Bitcoin Coinbase Update (been out)
The high here since last update is 9318.
For those who like patterns there were about 4 to choose from...
A head and shoulders top formed with 200 or so points of downside.
There's the bear flag and a variety of continuation patterns both up and down in 3/4 wave parallel patterns.
The break below 9150 created a 200 point short back to the 8940 on Coinbase at which point day traders could flip back to long again.
The low so far is 8943. It's since rallied directly to the 9020 line above it and fallen away again.
The lowest parallel lies just below here at around 8915.
It must ideally bounce again from 8940 line and at very worst from the lower parallel above 8900 at lowest.
If wrong from here and it breaks below the 8900 level and the parallel too at any point later today it should begin to fall away to 8768 and then 8660-8600 presenting another shorting opportunity if so.
At all costs 8600 must hold up this weekend. Failure here will tip Bitcoin into serious technical trouble and trigger another short if so.
Bitcoin Coinbase Update (been out)
The high here since last update is 9318.
For those who like patterns there were about 4 to choose from...
A head and shoulders top formed with 200 or so points of downside.
There's the bear flag and a variety of continuation patterns both up and down in 3/4 wave parallel patterns.
The break below 9150 created a 200 point short back to the 8940 on Coinbase at which point day traders could flip back to long again.
The low so far is 8943. It's since rallied directly to the 9020 line above it and fallen away again.
The lowest parallel lies just below here at around 8915.
It must ideally bounce again from 8940 line and at very worst from the lower parallel above 8900 at lowest.
If wrong from here and it breaks below the 8900 level and the parallel too at any point later today it should begin to fall away to 8768 and then 8660-8600 presenting another shorting opportunity if so.
At all costs 8600 must hold up this weekend. Failure here will tip Bitcoin into serious technical trouble and trigger another short if so.
Comment:
Recent Updates For updates in real-time please see link at top left of main page
22:14gmt 17:14est
Close out the long at 9050 or as close to as we can get
Or can raise stop to 9028
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
The head and shoulders is evident here but no bear flag. The retest of the neck-line from just above the first support line at 9067 (now near term resistance) was close to text-book too. Technically close to perfect.
It's still in danger of another setback whilst unable to clamber back above this line.
Bearish below and back to bullish again above for near term.
Now it looks like it should come off again .
It has to make a higher low when it does so and at all costs it has to hold the lower parallel on both feeds overnight to avoid further weakness as per Coinbase update above.
Rest as above for Coinbase.
Bitstamp Chart Update
22:14gmt 17:14est
Close out the long at 9050 or as close to as we can get
Or can raise stop to 9028
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
The head and shoulders is evident here but no bear flag. The retest of the neck-line from just above the first support line at 9067 (now near term resistance) was close to text-book too. Technically close to perfect.
It's still in danger of another setback whilst unable to clamber back above this line.
Bearish below and back to bullish again above for near term.
Now it looks like it should come off again .
It has to make a higher low when it does so and at all costs it has to hold the lower parallel on both feeds overnight to avoid further weakness as per Coinbase update above.
Rest as above for Coinbase.
Bitstamp Chart Update
Comment:
Bitcoin Bitfinex Update
Bitcoin had to break below the lower parallel on Bitfinex and Coinbase overnight to trigger the next short. It was expected to hold there and to bounce back up again.
It did that on Bitfinex pretty well and on Bitstamp perfectly but on Coinbase the lower parallel was spiked below and so a reasonable call was ruined if trading this feed. It drives everyone nuts having so many different prices and levels to analyse. on one single instrument. Until the day comes when there is one price for all the best we can do is to keep track of all 3 feeds (and the futures too when open) and follow the majority vote. It's the closest we can get to the truth of the ticker in a developing but still imperfect market.
Bitstamp and Bitfinex stayed 'good' so last night they had to be given the benfit of the doubt.
This kind of crap will likely happen again several more times before one price for all finally rules the market. Until then all we can do is make the best we can of a trying situation. We are where we are. We have to deal with it and learn to adapt to it as best we can.
Anyway if you are lucky enough to be trading off Bitstamp this feed was about as perfect as we could hope for overnight.
Bitcoin first came down to test the 8899 line preciisely, then rallied back to the 9077 line precisely and then came off a second time to touch the lower parallel precisiely before bouncing exactly where it should have done.
This price action created several potential trades: a 200 point short followed by a 170 point long and then another short back to 8899 and the lower parallel where it became a buy again.
To trade each of them is like expecting Messi to score a hattrick every game he plays. But hope you maybe got the short for 200 points and if not then the buy off the lower parallel if you were trading Bitstamp or Bitfinex.
So sorry for Coinbase traders where all the patterns were so reliable all day right up to the last moments as it spiked below the parallel.
Anyway, back on the trail...
Switching to Bitstamp feed for this first update as it looks more reliable at moment (annoyingly, that can change over course of the day, as yesterday with Coinbase, so ideally we need to keep an eye over all 3 feeds if possible)
If you went long again off the retest of the lower parallel it's held good overnight but has reached the underside of the neck-line of the small head and shoulders created yesterday and should really have been closed out for 300 or so gain by now.
If still long the nearest support is close by at 9077 so no point in closing out now.
But it must hold up from here to avoid further weakness back to 8899 line again.
Failure to do so will trigger another short with stops above 9100.
The overall pattern is still delictely poised with bulls holding sway above the 9077 line and bears still roaming the zone underneath 9077. Bullish above the line still and flipping into bearish territory below it.
More as the move develops...
Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Update
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Bitcoin had to break below the lower parallel on Bitfinex and Coinbase overnight to trigger the next short. It was expected to hold there and to bounce back up again.
It did that on Bitfinex pretty well and on Bitstamp perfectly but on Coinbase the lower parallel was spiked below and so a reasonable call was ruined if trading this feed. It drives everyone nuts having so many different prices and levels to analyse. on one single instrument. Until the day comes when there is one price for all the best we can do is to keep track of all 3 feeds (and the futures too when open) and follow the majority vote. It's the closest we can get to the truth of the ticker in a developing but still imperfect market.
Bitstamp and Bitfinex stayed 'good' so last night they had to be given the benfit of the doubt.
This kind of crap will likely happen again several more times before one price for all finally rules the market. Until then all we can do is make the best we can of a trying situation. We are where we are. We have to deal with it and learn to adapt to it as best we can.
Anyway if you are lucky enough to be trading off Bitstamp this feed was about as perfect as we could hope for overnight.
Bitcoin first came down to test the 8899 line preciisely, then rallied back to the 9077 line precisely and then came off a second time to touch the lower parallel precisiely before bouncing exactly where it should have done.
This price action created several potential trades: a 200 point short followed by a 170 point long and then another short back to 8899 and the lower parallel where it became a buy again.
To trade each of them is like expecting Messi to score a hattrick every game he plays. But hope you maybe got the short for 200 points and if not then the buy off the lower parallel if you were trading Bitstamp or Bitfinex.
So sorry for Coinbase traders where all the patterns were so reliable all day right up to the last moments as it spiked below the parallel.
Anyway, back on the trail...
Switching to Bitstamp feed for this first update as it looks more reliable at moment (annoyingly, that can change over course of the day, as yesterday with Coinbase, so ideally we need to keep an eye over all 3 feeds if possible)
If you went long again off the retest of the lower parallel it's held good overnight but has reached the underside of the neck-line of the small head and shoulders created yesterday and should really have been closed out for 300 or so gain by now.
If still long the nearest support is close by at 9077 so no point in closing out now.
But it must hold up from here to avoid further weakness back to 8899 line again.
Failure to do so will trigger another short with stops above 9100.
The overall pattern is still delictely poised with bulls holding sway above the 9077 line and bears still roaming the zone underneath 9077. Bullish above the line still and flipping into bearish territory below it.
More as the move develops...
Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Update
Bitcoin Coinbase Update
Comment:
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Bitcoin has rallied from the 9077 line precisely and shot higher - local resistance at 9389 which should cap the rally in near term where day traders will likely close out but the pattern is looking positive - as before- bulls hold sway above the 9077 dividing line and bears below.
If you bought off the lower parallel for the swing higher and are still long can stay that way though expect some downwards movement to arrive soon if so.
Bitcoin has rallied from the 9077 line precisely and shot higher - local resistance at 9389 which should cap the rally in near term where day traders will likely close out but the pattern is looking positive - as before- bulls hold sway above the 9077 dividing line and bears below.
If you bought off the lower parallel for the swing higher and are still long can stay that way though expect some downwards movement to arrive soon if so.
Comment:
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Coming back to the 9175 support line and the lower parallel. A buy here with stops below the line - or can wait for small dynamic above price to be broken above and the 9224 line reatken again by the bulls to add or for a safer buy anew.
Has to break below 9175 line by over 15 points to flip back to negative again back to 9077
Coming back to the 9175 support line and the lower parallel. A buy here with stops below the line - or can wait for small dynamic above price to be broken above and the 9224 line reatken again by the bulls to add or for a safer buy anew.
Has to break below 9175 line by over 15 points to flip back to negative again back to 9077
Comment:
Can raise the stop on this long to just under 9200 now and let it run towards the upper parallel for day traders and to uppermost larger parallel for swings.
Bitstamp Bigger Shot
Bitstamp Bigger Shot
Comment:
Sorry - earlier chart was old
Updated Bitsatmp Chart
Updated Bitsatmp Chart
Comment:
Going OK so far - hoping to run this position into tomorrow and maybe Sunday looking for a test of the uppermost parallel.
Day traders will likely be looking at the next upper smaller parallel above price and at around the 9500 level as this is written (it's moving higher though as the day wears on though, obviously) as an exit point if the trade goes well.
In near term Bitcoin is unwinding a fairly small pulse higher by moving sideways - nearest stop for day traders is under 9315 - it can move lower if this level breaks in near term, back to the 9224 line at lowest. Depending on risk profile swing traders can keep stops below here for now which is just below break even - that way it's either a 20 point loss or a potential 600 to 800 point gain - or use day trader's stops if around today and trading more actively.
Bitcoin Bitstamp Bigger Shot