BTCUSD: Protect your Short Positions

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
419 2 4
Bitcoin made a nice move down and although the price action did not perfectly match my expectations, the second bearish target at 257 - 260 was reached on 16 August (see my previous idea linked below).

If you are still short, now might be a good time to take (some) profit or at least tighten the stop loss on your positions for the following reasons:

  • The last impulsive leg down resulted in divergence on the RSI as well as on MACD on (almost) all hourly time frames.
  • The current price level is a Fibonacci confluence zone, being not only the 0.618 retracement of the initial move up, but also the 1.618 extension of the first corrective leg down.
  • A possible EW interpretation is marked on the chart. But even under the most bearish interpretation imaginable (see e.g. Ivan's idea linked below), at least some pullback is required before the next impulsive move down can start.

In brief: Although lower lows are still possible, I would realize some of my profits now. Opening new shorts is not advised right now (unless high-risk scalps are your kind of thing).
What do you think about it now? Has it bottomed then?
I think the probability is > .5 that we are at the bottom (or close to it). Having said that, I am in no hurry to immediately go long again. I expect more consolidation and there should be plenty of time to go long again. So I am currently just sitting at the sidelines and watching.
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