The Bitcoin cycles get really repetitive once you layout the movements like I have here we start to see the patterns it creates.
I don't daily trade I don't recommend you to either, open your mind to a further time frame and setup prior to these movements giving you freedom to use lower leverage if you do trade.
I use the L-MACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) with a simple trend line plotted at .20 points, what we can notice here with the momentum oscillator below 0.20 points is where Bitcoin trends for a good amount of months before making a fast rapid return to the average of the 0.20 trend line. A return the trend line repeating historic movements would put Bitcoin at around $60,000 by July-Aug 2023. Note the future bar lines are to be used for total days of movement prior to a bull market not the dollar values.
Where I positioned the red pin is where we should expect a red X to occur with momentum shifting from bearish to neutral, neutral then to bullish.
What people really forget about previous cycles is the 1/2 years prior to the peak of the market a very strong accumulation occurs, its happening right now. Don't be misguided by the second peak in the market it is irrelevant to the overall growth and movement of Bitcoin, every cycle has its theme and painting of a different picture but ultimately resulting in the same movement and growth into the next cycle.
When we return to $60,000 by July-Aug what would the high be in 2025-2026? lets take a look at previous psychology ----------------------------- 2011 $2.17 x570 2013 $1,240 ----------------------------- 2015 $164 x120 2017 $19,770 ----------------------------- 2020 $3,800 x18 2021 $69,000 ----------------------------- 2022 $15,000 x72 2025 ? ($1,080,000) -----------------------------
Elephant in the room, end of cycles is it coming? sadly yes. I hope we all can see the world past 2040 where "Bitcoin Cycles" will be seen as a period where this all started, kids of the future will wish they was around to see this unfolding in real time, some of course will think they could have made fortunes from it. Although Bitcoin Cycles will end, bull & bear markets will not.
Eventually Bitcoin will be worth $25,000,000 a single coin a lot compared to today's value right? but even a 1x of the future puts $25,000,000 to $50,000,000 that will be the new growth over decades.
The period where large financial institutions and wealthy sovereign states make the leap of allocating and becoming a holder of Bitcoin is where we will likely see a gigantic move unlike any other previously, this allocation once regulation is fully in place will shoot Bitcoins price beyond your imagination, this will sadly mark the end of the Bitcoin Cycles era and begin a new phase where bull markets last 10 years and bear markets 5 for example.
The final point to make here, we all have this information right in front of us, the network works and continues to grow stronger, governments are adopting Bitcoin, Gary Gensler marks it as a commodity, the largest institutions in the world have noted they are going to allocate with their funds and with clients once regulations finish the frame work. Fidelity 4.5 trillion USD AUM Blackrock 10 trillion USD AUM Charles Schwab 7.13 trillion USD AUM to name a few
I see projections for cycles that even out around 2040, but what if this happens in 2030? that would mean a gigantic parabolic move comes before 2030 and Bitcoin could be in a bear market till 2035, 2020-2021 based on history with Bitcoin was the smaller cycle, the next cycle should be bigger and possibly could be the last.
@x333-, ehhhh what? I told people back in 2015, once again in 2020. I'm not sure what's so hard for people to figure this out? either it goes to zero or it goes to millions there is no in between. I thought people would get it at $500 they did not, $5000 they did not, $50,000 they did not, so I'm guessing at $500,000 and $5,000,000 they will still... not get it. I've been here too long, caught the tech boom, caught the Tesla take over when it was nothing, now the biggest one Bitcoin is aiming for the finance sector yet people are contemplating if they should allocate. If you want to think with emotion you can purchase at $500,000 and sell at $130,000 like majority will end up doing.
Ironically I kept the receipts of my purchases and have them framed on my wall, $500 nobody cared when I suggested, $19,999 everybody around me wants to get involved, $3,000 in 2018 once again I gave people an entry nobody wanted to get involved, $69,000 same people start to care. Here I am in 2023 we have an undervalued super asset once again at $23,700 yet the same happens again nobody is interested, no Bitcoin miners, no allocation, its not expensive so its not desirable anymore.