Now that Bitcoin has decisively cleared the 41K to 42k range resistance, it has confirmed a break out and offers a new piece of information: beginning of bullish price structure. This means we adjust our support/resistance expectations and continue to look for new longs at the next support.
A trade idea was shared around the 41K level after Bitcoin established a higher low off the 37K level. I was anticipating 35K for the bounce but I was wrong. That idea was aggressive since the location was not ideal, but nevertheless the momentum followed through and now that trade is nearing profit targets.
The 45K area poses a minor resistance, but 50K is the big level now. Keep in mind, there is going to be LOTS of overly bullish talk in this situation, there ALWAYS is. The herd LOVES hope, and marketers, especially in this space KNOW this and promote hopeful messages very well. Please do yourself a favor and ignore the hype. If you weren't willing to take the risk at lower levels, where the reward/risk was much more attractive, why would you be interested now? The area between 45 and 50K is a great place to be locking in some profits NOT putting on new risk.
Waiting for the next long: now that structure has proven itself, it is reasonable to expect supports to hold and resistances to break. The next support is now the 41 to 42K AREA (the old range resistance). Such a level offers better reward/risk and probability compared to current prices.
Another important thing to note: price HAS not broken out of the broader Wave 4. The consolidation between 28.5 and 42K was just a range within the broader Wave 4. This means expecting a full on trend back to the 64K peak is unreasonable at this point. If 50K is held, then a pullback to the 41K support area is still very possible.
If your frustrated or confused by this environment, one of the main reasons is you are consuming and weighting the wrong information. Focus on price structure, support/resistance and price action on larger time frames. Avoid anything connected to fundamental logic because it won't offer ANY value in an environment that is driven by irrational behavior.
Thank you for considering my perspective and analysis. I hope you find it helpful.
Fantastic content. This class of sober reality is lacking on TV. Remember, if your 'position' does not include a process of "what if I'm wrong?' complete with deconstructing and rebuilding your idea, you (or the operator's marketing) are just fabricating a hopeful reality. Thanks Marc.
Snacks
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Thanks man. Always helpful.
Wolf_of_Trading
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thanks for sharing , here is my short idea
Mayfair_Ventures
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Great post, thanks Marc! have a great week.
CryptoCybernaut
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Great article, thanks Marc
ArmanShabanTrading
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yes , i agree 👍
john528walsh
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Thank you, fully agree!
rampman10
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Thank you
STPAUL007
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Agreed. We need to kick A$$ out of 200MA first :)
elozantasantos
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you are the equalizer. there is so much noise in the market right now. excellent content!