An update on that post i did on 30 Jan, where i tried to show some objectivity on the current stage of the market. If you want to know more about it, read the previous analysis about this. As you can see, i have drawn yellow circles on what i think were Bitcoin currently is. Just to give a picture of what could happen the coming period. It's still not clear if this is just an ABC correction or an impulse wave up to start a new trend. A lot will depend on the coming week i think keeping an eye out for volume and conviction.
The 3700/750 is still a big level to break, we can compare it with the 3650 (bitfinex) back in Dec. If that zone breaks with good volume again, chances will be much bigger for a continuation of the rally. But we have to see it break soon, would be best if it happens on Monday already. So far Bitcoin is holding it's levels above 3600, alts look very stable as well, so it's looking all very good at this point.
If we look at the others, none of them crossed the 3450/80 level/zone Bitcoin has now. In other words, this whole picture will fail if that level breaks again. Markets needs to keep it above that level, but preferably even above 3570/50
Great example of how important objectivity is when trying to judge financial markets. It's very easy to get caught uAp in the emotions of financial markets, especially the crypto market because there are so many groups, chats and analysts and many other sources. All giving almost compelling reasons to why the market has to go up or down. My view has been up since the 3200 low in Dec. During the 3400 low in Feb/Jan, i posted the first part of this chart. I did not do this to tell you the market will go up, i showed it because the sentiment was so bearish again (from what i could read everywhere). To show similar examples of where Bitcoin was at that point, that even though it looked so weak and bearish, that maybe something else was going on. I think even the less experience have learned the past 12/18 months, that when things looks at their worst, it's usually the low and when things looks unstoppable, it's usually the high.
For me personally, my view was up ever since the low and after seeing that first jump up to 3650 after the low at 3350, i had set my (TA) rule/level between giving up on any bullish views at the 3450/3500 level. This was no random level, this level was the neckline of that double bottom i showed back then. That pattern ignited this second wave up and therefore was THE level for me. Now this doesn't mean i was convinced of bullish movement and was always looking up without any doubt, of course not. This market has endured so much the past 2 years that we all know, anything can happen at any time. But this level did help me, to never forget at any point the past 2 months, that there is still a very realistic chance for a move up and a break of the 4200.
There have been so many people telling me that a break of the 4200 was almost impossible the past weeks and to be honest, it was taking a lot of time to break up so it was far from easy to think it will break the 4200. Again, all had very compelling reasons even towards me. Each time i would simply look back at these charts and would look at them and think okay, they are right, volume is crap, moves are slow, taking a lot of time, no conviction, bearish indicators and many more. But then when looking at the game plan i had prepared 2 months ago and the charts and movements, i would simply tell myself okay:
A) Did something weird happen since the Feb low? No, we got rejection again at 4200 as suggested simply to make a higher low and attack the 4200 again. Of course the past 2 weeks it was not easy to to think the 4200 would break, but the past days before the break up, there were several signs indicating the chances were increasing, as mentioned in my BTC' analysis. B) How is sentiment, bearish or bullish? What i could see on TV and from comments and my own groups, it was mostly bearish, so that was actually even perfect. C) I can continue with more of these things but i won't, think you get the picture.
When knowing what i wrote in my previous Alt Market Cap analysis, you will get the picture of how i do my analysis/trading. So my advice is, ignore everyone who talks about right or wrong, but listen to people who show you facts and use those tools to make your own game plan. Look at which signs are real yellow cards and which ones are wishful thinking. For example, even many bulls were hoping to get in again at 3500/3700, so they go looking for signs that confirm that view. As mentioned in the Alt analysis, try to determine your own "yellow cards", as i showed a bit in a previous Bitcoin' analysis.
Previous analysis:
The Bitcoin analysis guideline in Feb:
The Bitcoin analysis with where i talk about a few signs:
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And to add on the analysis btw, where it looked like it might have been an ABC, the big rally we had this week suggest it's almost sure that we will see a 5 wave structure now.
I personally think everything will happen faster, and more in more condensed time. There are more eyes on cryptocurrencies, more talk (positive and negative) and I'd love to see a chart depicting registered users of fiat to crypto exchanges now vs the last bull run. I don't think whales will increase, but the masses will and the whales will oscillate that move up, or down as well. FOMO for a first major bull-run is one thing, but FOMO this time for the rest of the people who actually did miss the first run, I think will be powerful. Or maybe it won't, it's crypto haha.
Daysandwicks
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@croset, Makes sense plus those who didn't miss the first bull run but were still hodling when it ended and got burned on the way down will be eager to get back their lost profits. Ofc those who still see it as a viable investment. Many traders despite their knowledge still look at crypto as a standard mature market, where moves take a long time to occur and where prices slowly go up or down. The overall trend might be up or down like on any market but when it moves, it moves like a train.
The volume we have right now indicates that it might actually be the beginning of a new bull cycle, when compared to other spikes in the last few months.
botje11
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@croset, It won't move that fast. Past days i have seen a few friends and family, people who don't understand markets at all or even follow them, but got in a year ago at the highs during the hype. Almost non of them were even aware of the rally Bitcoin made this week. So think it would need much more to wake those people up again. Probably a move above the famous 6K level, to see it getting covered in the new much more
So now that everybody is bullish since that big move up, does it mean that are going to retrace??( 4500? 4200?)
dalmazio
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@Redj86, I would love to see someone develop a “sentiment” indicator where we can see the correlation between broad market sentiment (for example by tabulating all the ideas on TV that are short v. long) and see how that corresponds to price movement. My hunch is it is inversely correlated...
@Redj86, that's fantastic! So according to this chart, we are at top levels of greed, which suggests a correction is due. Thanks for sharing. Really wonderful.
Redj86
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@dalmazio, Well i don't really know. It looks like some kind of RSI to me. (if you compare, it match almost perfectly).
botje11
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@Redj86, No, sentiment doesn't change the price overnight. That usually takes more time. Like at the 3200 in Dec, it took maybe 2 weeks until we rallied, in Feb same thing. So i would not think that after a few days, after breaking that 4200, the market would already turn again because of sentiment. That usually takes more time