We are approaching breaking the long term downward channel and shifting the trend to the upside for the first time in over a year by trading sideways alone. This will occur in just days by trading sideways or less than that if we make a slight move up.
You are 100% correct for the trend reversal. And it becomes more clear if you look at the long term chart below.
WBM_Team
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Many said BTC is dead. There were all wrong.
CryptoEngineering
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We will see $3200 - $3600 again
Salmin
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We should retest the 3200 lvl first before we go up again
coin8300
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@Salmin, We've had quite a few downward tests (brief spikes down) at this point and all have failed. RSI looks good on all time scales. I don't know that there's the will for people to sell at this point and push down to those levels because the risk of the price moving against you and losing 25% of your BTC stack is quite high right now at this price and time point. Anything can happen though and a test to 3200 would not be the craziest thing to happen to BTC; it remains a possibility. I have some cash ready if that happens but I'm currently doubtful based on what I'm seeing. I see a slow grind up until gears start to catch and real momentum kicks in. There's quite a few people waiting for the level you mentioned or even lower (they are basing their analysis on a hopeful exact match to RSI (5-year) double bottom witnessed in 2015 for confirmation which I think is a mistake considering history rarely repeats and BTC has a higher profile and likely quicker market participants than before) Considering many are waiting there is most likely quite a bit of fuel on the sidelines which could capitulate and buy causing a spike to the upside if we move up past some key price levels in the weeks to come. So your level could happen but stay cautious.
coin8300
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@Salmin, I also think if it did move in that direction that a bounce would occur at $3550 and not $3200 based on my chart.
Salmin
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@coin8300, I'd say a bounce of 3600ish lvl (Bitfinex) is more likely than retesting the 3200 level, but anything can happen. This is crypto my friend :)
coin8300
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@Salmin, I suppose it depends if you view support depending on a wedge or channel. I see breaking of long term channel with wedge support. True.