Hello friends and welcome to my first analysis on BTC! Since im new to TA i find it easier to look at the bigger picture, therefore i compare BTC with NASDAQ during the tech-bubble and i see some similarities which i would like to point out.
TheNASDAQ peaked in year 2000 at 5100 points and retraced back to 1100 points. If history repeats itself, and NASDAQ retraces by the same the target would be roughly at 4550$.
The first dip of BTCreached a bit over the 0.382 retracement whereas for the NASDAQ it was not that bad, retracing only a bit over the 0.5.
The second dip reached exactly the 0.236, where the NASDAQ retraced even stronger
The third dip of BTCretraced nearly to the November low, which looks very similar to the third dip of the NASDAQ. From there it went again to 11.7k where it failed with a double top. Since then the sell off continued but the selling pressure got lower.
The fourth dip of the NASDAQ was slightly below the low before the start of its massive rally. If BTC follows the same path i expect a price of 4550 to 5050 before rallying again to the strong resistance of 11.7k. The NASDAQ rallied after the fourth dip to the 0.382 in 2007 where it failed again and retraced back nearly to its low of 2002. After this low the new rally until today started.
I think there are some similarities and after the lack of selling pressure lately at around 6500$ i expect a slower decline to the target of 4550 to 5050$, where a new rally will (hopefully) start.