So after that channel on the right broke we got a decent drop today with good volume as well. However, what that candle does not show, there was a lot of buying volume as well after the last dip. So i am still open for bullish and bearish scenario's at this point. So that big ABC correction i have been talking about since the 3200 low in Dec, is still in play here. Only a break of 3300 (3200 max) can really invalidate it.
What important is for the coming days, is that we see movement like the blue line suggest for the coming day or 2. Seeing it move inside of a possible wedge. It can take a different shape as well, but it is important we don't make a big dump, that we see clear buying support around the 3300/3400 zone. Actually a bit like we saw today at the low.
So to be clear about it, the charts above are only showing the bullish version, which is still in play, but as soon as that support zone around 3300 really breaks, if is off the table. If the 3200 breaks with normal/high volume, things could get very ugly. We could even see a lot of panic.
There is a chart i posted a few days ago in my groups, was just something to keep in mind, to give some sense to the movement of the past few days. If this possible fractal is real, it also shows how bearish things can become for the coming weeks. There is one significant difference though, the volume was much higher back then.
Most of the alt coins have taken some big hits today. Volume is nog big yet, but it has increased. So if we do see another wave down with even more volume, it could indicate we will see more bearish movement the coming weeks. Litecoin is still one of the bullish coins, so i think it's good to watch my LTC' analysis. I think it's support might be a very good indication to see if the market will bounce up or not the coming days.
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Previous analysis:
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So far so good, made another dip but still inside this potential small wedge, as long as it doesn't drop too much, things can work out. It is again a bounce, but a small one. So i still think there could be another drop. Unless we see follow through from the current levels. It's a similar small inverse H&S as yesterday, but the longer it takes, the bigger the chances it will fail
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Updated XRP analysis:
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Update ETH analysis:
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Still following the wedge so far, now it's important we don't drop TOO much. Also volume on this drop should not be too high, because than it would not fit the profile of a wedge.
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I see the market already moved up, not even completing the wedge, ( maybe it got too obvious).
Anyway, an inverse H&S has been formed, breakout is with good volume So as long as we stay above the green zone now, we could see another push up. Dont know yet if this is THE low (if there even is THE low), but it could be.
The daily is moving up, above 3600ish daily close could mean the reversal is set set. Above 3700 is a bigger level. Alts are moving up as well, with XRP making a big rally. But it is VERY important that levels are being held now. Because the low (daily) volume on Bitcoin is still low. So because of that there is still risk for a Bart move.
Volume at the breakout of the IH&S is good, so we should stay above the 3430 (3400max) from now on.
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Extra update on Bitcoin:
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Still above that neckline, but it should not take much longer, otherwise the wedge could get 'activated'
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We broke out of the wedge, but it is breakout out with sideways action so far. Because of that, all options are still open. As long as it stays above that green zone on the right, it's still bullish, below the green on the left, we should be dropping towards the lows again. Alts are still looking okay, so nothing bearish there yet. Just volume on Bitcoin is still very low, but we are also still in the neutral/bearish zone. no real resistances have been broken. So it's not a big surprise volume is still low.
Open Intrest on Bitmex is very high now, 431 mil, the highest since the Nov crash. So there are a lot of longs and shorts open. Increasing the chances for a big move to happen soon. The big question, is that up or down. Only way we can increase or odds, is to watch important levels.
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Broke up from that small wedge on the left i posted in the previous update, but volume on BTC is still so low. But some alts are improving now the past half hour or so. XRP already made another good jump up. But still the king Bitcoin, is not showing any force. Could still come, not unusual that alts move first and btc shortly after. Just want to see some aggressive buying (volume) if we go up.
Dirty manipulators are intentionally dragging this bear market out to milk it for all they can get. It's frustrating to see. I just wish it would crash already. Get it over with so we can hit bottom and start another bull run. I will tell you one thing: when I cash out next time, it's not likely I will ever enter this market again unless it becomes regulated. And if I do enter, it will probably be as a bear, since bears are far more stronger in this market than bulls.
SpaceCatZ
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@rev214us, Haha. Winners are the ones that does not quit when they are down. You are not one of them. And you cant come back as bear after huge bear market.If cryptos fully regulated, I will consider exploring my other options. Too much regulation is not a good thing but I agree that there should be some regulations on exchange's and manipulative false news but not the crypto itself.
kardia
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@SpaceCatZ, Who said I am quitting? You misunderstood me. I know how to trade. I can most certainly come back as a bear and do well.
botje11
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@rev214us, I completely understand your frustration. For someone like you, it's important to watch volumes. Now it's so easy to manipulate because the volume was low. But in Dec we could see, the sells kept coming in, but we kept moving up because buying volume was simply stronger.
kardia
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@botje11, It doesn't help that the exchanges we have to work with to trade crypto pretty much suck for trading due to serious limitations. I wouldn't be surprised if this is intentional.
dralerte
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@rev214us, Suck it up. Whining is for babies. ;(
kardia
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@dralerte, you come across as one of the bad players in the market. Not worth listening to.
dralerte
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@rev214us, Take a time out. Your negativity is toxic :/
kardia
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@dralerte, it's called reality! I know there is a group of people out there who don't like to hear facts, but facts don't care about feelings. If you don't like my comments, then don't read them. But don't expect me to give up my right to free speech just because you can't handle the truth.
dralerte
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@rev214us, You sound very defensive and bitter. That's the truth. My condolences for your losses ;(