MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
185 0 2
The Charter is pretty clear: we are now on an uptrend channel, after breaching the black median-term downtrend line that starts at 1240. Therefore, until this channel is breached, it seems we are going up. Watch out for the horizontal line at 839. If that line gets really breached, we might go up more. The breach of the blue support line at around 783 will be the first weakness signal. The second signal of weakness will be the break of the uptrend red support line that starts at 450 and forms the triangle. The breach of the two black support lines of the channel will be the end of this short-term uptrend.
Since I wrote this charter, the trend is showing some weakness (see my recent charter here https://www.tradingview.com/v/WYz6oZRl/), but it is still to early to tell. Lets see if the price goes to 783 and if this support line stands. If the 783 are breached, we'll have a doble top (at more or less 818) and a breached doble bottom, but with bitcoin that doesn't mean that the price will go to 748; even if this could be a target, right on the first black support line, after breaching the red triangle.

On fundamental terms: we all know we are at these prices because of China. Right now, China means a lot for bitcoin . If these volumes aren't fake, they had more than 60% of all the bitcoin volume in the last 7 days (check http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=7d; see also http://btckan.com/price; however, last 24h show a much smaller volume: http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL). But it seems chinese exchanges might have only about 30 days to live (see http://www.coindesk.com/sources-confirm-chinas-payment-processor-ban-bitcoin-price-falls/ and links). Any confirmation that they can't operate beyond 31 January will take bitcoin down sharply. If the chinese exchange Huobi ends closed because of its practice of accepting deposits using personal accounts of its owner, we'll see the same reaction. Therefore, it might be wise to don't be very exposed to the market, even on this short-term uptrend. On the contrary, if some exchanges close doors, but Huobi and some others keep going illegaly undisturbed, the uptrend might go on.

You won't find on my analysis any mumbo-jumbo on elliott waves , Fibonacci retracements or other voodoo (?) analysis. On my experience, they mean little. On bitcoin in particular, they mean almost nothing. Even basic patterns like a doble top means little, it seems only lines and moving avarages mean anything trading bitcoins . Anyway, a chart must be objective and clear. Trend lines fulfill those requirements, therefore people follow them, so they "usually" work. I don't know nothing about the future (besides that I'll have to pay taxes and die), nor I pretend to know, I only detect trends and follow them.
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