Bitcoin still follow bigger picture, retest triangle before drop

I have been shorting Bitcoin from the 9000+ with a small position because i thought we could see 9300/9400 but the rally was to weak and made a false break out and we started to drop. Around 8750 price started to show some clear weakness and i went short again there and (posted it live in my updates). Now it's kinda tricky, did we already reach the target at the 7720 or should we go to 7500 before making an correction again. Anyway potential on the downside is low at the moment.
I added around 8200 after it made that big squeeze again, which clearly failed of course. While it was dropping i closed all my positions between 8050 and 7950.

After a few hours i opened a new small short position because a bear flag was developing suggesting another drop, but the flag got to big so i closed it again with a 150 point loss. Than i opened another very small short position position around 7950 which went through the stop at 8000 while i am writing this.

Why i am telling this all (followers already know my trades through my updates) this is starting to look like overtrading! I am aware of this fact (not 100% while i am doing this) but that's why i keep those positions very small!. Now i am just staying flat, it is attractive to go long here but it's a countertrend move and it's just better to sit on the sidelines now and wait for a much better entry point to go short again.

For now i think there 2 options, we go up from here (which i think has the biggest chance) or we make a small drop before going up again. All this to make a bigger bear flag. The red Area is a very important turning point, if price gets above that level things can change. So probably sideways for a day or 2 before we make another drop again towards the 7500 or maybe even much lower

For more info, please read my previous analysis. I won't answer question anymore to where you can easily find the answers. I put in very VERY much hours into this, the least you can do is read a little bit. I promise you, you will learn allot while doing it!

Don't forget to like :)

Comment:

I forget to say, that red trend line, thought it was something to mention. That is the neckline of that inverse H&S i posted a week ago. Could be a coincidence it bounced up from there, but not something to ignore

Comment:

Was not a big squeeze (yet) but my gut feeling has again not lot me down :)

Comment:

I am just wondering, who are the buyers in those 2 blue area's. When price dropped below support but they kept it so close against it. Could be a coincidence, that my trend lines are wrong, i dont know :)

Comment:

It;s slowly getting out of that channel, meaning chances are very big it will drop and test it. Like the blue line suggests

Comment:

This would be a good spot to go long i think, with a stop around 7850 or 7750. I am staying flat! Done enough trading last few days. I will just wait for my entry point to go short

Comment:

Ok guys, i think i have Twitter running now, could you check it if i did it right?

@botje11TV

Comment:

Comment:

This is a fast dump, not what i expected. Could still bounce though

Comment:

Could be seeing something like this now. Best if we dont drop below the 7900

Comment:

This flag has to break up any minute now, otherwise we could see another 100/200 point drop. That big volume bar shows some big buyers stepping in. It's not very big but still something not to ignore

Comment:

Starting to look like a very small wedge, think we will see a spike up any minute now

Comment:

I am not trading this guys, just to be clear!! To risky for me

Comment:

Eventually price made a mix of the blue and red line i showed earlier. Anyway, it seems to be stabilizing now. Still no signs of strength, actually even weak still, but we could see it turn slowly up from here. If we drop from here and break the low, i don't know where we could go to. With that i mean, will it just make a lower low around 7500 ish or are we just continuing the big drop. The wedge i showed a week ago has a wide target, between 7200/7500. So no pin pointing there.

Even if we drop from here, i will probably just wait it out. I don't like chasing the market

Comment:

Next step is breaking through this resistance now, won\t be easy. If it makes a good bull flag now, it will probably trigger a 100/200 point rally. BUT it wont be the first time we see a bull flag fail. So best scenario it breaks up within half hour

Comment:

First attempt failed, been a very long time since i have seen a bull flag just push through at the first attempt

Comment:

Comment:

Really weakening now, could make a drop soon, looks like it has made a lower high

Comment:

Comment:

Last support is around 7700, if that does not hold, than i am starting to fear i may have missed my entry for the next wave down. Still not going to chase it though.
You never know what could happen if you get in at random prices at lows. This was not something i was expecting to happen now, so it doesn't fit my plan. If i would just get in now, blindly, i would be gambling. It's better to miss out on a trade than to loose.

Only thing that i think could save it for now, is a double bottom. But it's just hanging here now, so very big chance we keep on dropping

Comment:

Comment:

Comment:

I think it's the moment of truth, if the red resistance area breaks we could see a reversal here. Otherwise we just keep on dropping

Comment:

Comment:

Think it's taking to long

Comment:

Comment:

Double bottom is almost set

Comment:

Still some resistance at the top of the pattern, Positive thing is, first small bull flag that saw some real fast follow through! It did fell a bit short with reaching it's target, but it's an improvement!
Now, it's even okay if it drops towards the 7900, should not get below it and drop inside that bigger channel again. IF we get close there, i might try a small long position

Comment:

First time i am seeing some strength of buyers, after a rally. Big chance it won't drop below 8000 and just moves up from here

Comment:

If price pushes through the 8100/8150, i think we could see a rally

Comment:

Chances increase it will drop out

Comment:

Looks like a double top, should go towards that green area

Comment:

Bulls have a different plan, if it breaks out of this wedge, meaning it did not even come close to the target of the double top, it would be a very strong sign!!

Comment:

New update