Bearish Wolfe Wave that will complete 1-4 projection at 20.4k around August 21st
Distribution that activated markdown on this breakdown - tried to get back in and rejected; initial target 22k, goal target 20.3k in confluence with the wolfe.
I doubt BTC drops below 22.4k, which is also my target. There’s already hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart which would be voided with no other possible bullish divergence if BTC dropped below 20.7k. My ETH pullback target is $1575 – 1600. Have you updated yours? I also have the same 4090 pullback target on S&P as the most likely. Ostensibly this S&P pullback will not be the right shoulder of the posited, inverted H&S and instead will come in Sept – Oct. Then to new ATHs no later than Q1 2023.
shelby3
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Found it! I mean any ETH update from ?
shelby3
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My observations after studying the charts intensively last night and this morning.
The December 2018 bottom to the March 2020 corona dump is repeating. The proportional duration (prior:current) could be 1:1, 11:13 or 2:3; I’m leaning to the middle (second) one. Timing wise the crypto markets are much more tightly correlated to the S&P than in 2018. Bitcoin is languishing as it did in early 2019 until it went parabolic after ETH periscoped its 200 daily SMA and BTC surmounted the same and its overhead resistance downtrend line (which is currently ~29K); expecting a repeat. Implications include a crypto top in December 2022, January or March 2023 respectively and a massive corona-like flash crash from a final peak August, October 2023 or March 2024. Martin Armstrong’s DJIA Forecast Array has an aggregate peak and long-term, trading cycle for January 2023. A May 2023 bottom could follow a January crypto top with the Fed forced to become more dovish as they did Oct/Nov 2019 corresponding to a Panic Cycle in May 2023 on said Forecast Array. The early 2018, late 2018 and 2020 S&P crashes have monotonically increased in percentage by a factor of 1.75; which projects to -62.5% for the next one; and from top (~5700 – 6100) to bottom in less than 2 months! Pootin invades the Sulwaki Corridor? Monkeypox is crowned?
Near-term whether there’s a leg higher interim, S&P must decline between 3960 to 4090 — probably the latter only. ETH may decline into the low 1400s. BTC should not decline below 20.7k. I believe the markets have been in a terminal impulse wave status since major EW count wave 2 for the corona dump retraced more than 61.8% of major wave 1, thus all wave counts should be A-B-C even on non-corrective, impulse waves. Counting from the June bottom in waves of 3 seems to make more sense than a posited 5 wave count?
ETH currently retraced log-scaled 0.382 Fib contrasted with 0.236 for the posited corresponding juncture in early 2019; BTC has comparable Fib amplification. Whereas the Nasdaq and S&P currently retraced 0.5 and 0.618 respectively contrasted with 0.618 and 0.618/0.786 in early 2019. This may portend 53 – 63k BTC, 3400 – 3800 ETH, 4831 S&P and 16050 Nasdaq for the Q1 2023 top. And 53 – 75k BTC, 3400 – 6000 ETH, 5550 S&P and 21389 Nasdaq for the posited final top before the posited -62% flash crash. I’m leaning to the higher values for crypto reflected in the aforementioned relative Fib amplification, because unlike 2019 when crypto was in a disbelief stage, crypto is more digested now and once the Fed turns dovish then crypto FOMO will surge.
shelby3
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Here’s a matching “triple top” (aka actually quadruple or double-double) ANYONECANSPEND death spiral (followed by Rothschild’s Economist Magazine 1988 cover story Phoenix ‘rising from the ashes’ thereafter) visual model for Bitcoin:
shelby3
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CORRECTION: Bitcoin spot could decline below 20.7k and still have a hidden, bullish RSI divergence, as long as remains above 18.6k. The spot RSI has come down more than I expected it would at current price level. If the RSI comes down enough the hidden, bullish RSI divergence would persist if price is above the 17.6k spot price bottom. On CME it’s possible a non-hidden, bullish RSI divergence might form with price even as low as $18155 to fill the CME gap that didn’t entirely fill with the June 18.5k bottom. I am looking for a bottom $18 – 19k.
shelby3
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I am backing up the truck and loading up on this Powell speech FUD. The bottom was June.
The DXY is peaking and this always marks the bottom for BTC. Yet another of half-dozen indicators that Bitcoin bottomed!
I am not bullish on ADA. Maybe to hit $1.20 by Q1 2023, but to decline below 1 cents again in the late 2023 or early 2024 flash crash. Well BTC and ETH to decline below 10k and $150 then also.
Possible explanation is ADA has slow development and proof-of-stake is doomed.
shelby3
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Or one could argue as Ron Walker does that because markets have been pushed higher on the bull trap rally, then drop will be worse.
But what is the catalyst for that? Inflation is moderating, companies are still reporting good earnings in the U.S., consumer spending, jobs and wages not yet declining. And massive amounts of cash still on the sidelines with many still betting short. Are they going to sit in cash while the ~20% inflation debases purchasing power? Would need to be some black swan with Russia? In an election year? Sept/Oct is often choppy and volatile, especially in an election year.
In 2021 the Elon Musk and Michael Saylor hype. In 2020 was the tech bubble driven by the pLandemic lockdowns and massive stimulus. In 2019 it was the QE momentum from the Great Recession coupled with the dead cat enthusiasm from the altcoin FOMO bubble of 2017. Coming off the 2022 bottom has been the ETH merge. Altcoin gaming with transportable NFTs may be the next hype. Also Kevin O’Leary has been pushing the theme that sovereign wealth funds are coming very soon into Bitcoin and BlackRock recently enabled custodial purchasing facilitated by Coinbase! BlackRock owns the Fed and Treasury Dept! The markets are flooded with cash from the QE and stimulus, and that cash has to go some where so that the whales can fleece the greater fool dolphins and minnows.
Remember the game theory prerequisite to take Bitcoin to a nosebleed price and onboard everyone the-powers-that-be want to destroy/fleece, before the ANYONECANSPEND attack can be unleashed.