Bitcoin finally makes a move lower, and this was not to be un-expected. It was actually the higher probability move, but this is far from the end of a broader move higher. We remained neutral over the past week after our swing trade hit its second target and we are simply allowing the market to play out and provide a setup for going long.
Trading Article - For the Trolls that do not understand the difference between trading and investing, this is about swing trading. Not day trading, not scalping pennies in your mum's basement. I am Neutral in the short term, Bullish in the Long and Mid term.
Most of trading and investing is done waiting for setups. It is critical to be patient in any market, as impulsive decision making or acting early can often leave you holding the bag or actually losing it. We mentioned over the past week to be patient here, and again in our weekly review, where we were looking for Bitcoin and or Litecoin to print a lower leg before looking for setups. The selloff last week, took a continuation trade off the radar, and we went into wait and seek mode, where we simply wait for the market to play out, and seek setups for a bullish swing trade.
Yet patience has its disadvantages, and often you miss a quick reversal or sudden breakout. However over the long haul there is always another trade setup, and it keeps you from deteriorating your trading capital. All the crap we took last year, our trading capital was up, and it is up yet again this year as well. Many gambled last year and are now desperately trying to get back to break even. I won't forget the follower that could not understand why in a month we didn't take a trade. Well simply, it was not the environment and it probably kept you out of a lot of bad trades. No trade is still a trade!
To be clear there is no trade setup yet. The 3550 to 3650 provides the ideal area to look for a bullish reversal and setup to go long. Entering to early is not warranted as taking out the 3650 level puts the lower 3100-3300 in play. There needs to be a defined structure not a moving average, not a half winged bat, or dark cloud over Bart's head. We are looking for structure, yet Bitcoin's structure is not very clear, but there is a instrument that has a clear structure and that is Litecoin.
Litecoin:
Litecoin has a clearly defined structure and moving forward it will be our basis for the market in general. Whether we form a higher low here, or we move lower to the 42.25 level is simply guessing. All we have is a leg down and until we see a couple more candles there is nothing to do. Taking out the 42.25 area puts the low to mid 30's in play, however there is a broader support level and psychological level around 40.0. How the structure forms around these areas will provide direction in whether we take a trade or not. Trading off the RSI or other indicators can have you entering in early, and though it may work out sometimes, over the long haul it will lead to capital erosion.
In short we finally got a move in the market, yet the waiting is not over. We look for higher probability setups, and not fall prey to the impulsive nature to gamble. If you are patient a trade setup will eventually evolve, the key is will you have the capital to take advantage of it, or will you be trading from a hole, trying to get back to even? Don't get excited about this move as it still needs to play out and form some type of structure for which a swing trade setup is relevant. Our goal is first and foremost, capital protection, the result of this more often then not results in profits. Not the 100% profits weekly you get from chart prophets, but a steady increase in capital.
this guy gets tons of likes because he's good at blowing smoke and sounding like he knows what hes talking about. Remember he was telling folks to buy at 6k. Noobs want 'The Answer' and there isn't one. DYOR and make your own decisions.
Jolgan
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@some_guy, the fact that TV doesn't have a "disagree" button reminds me of the time when american citizens didn't have an instrument to make money on the fall of the price of BTC
goldbug1
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@Jolgan, The fact they don't have a troll button is also disheartening. ;)
kardia
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@goldbug1, I agree! They should give people the option to ignore/block people, just as they should give people a chance to edit their comments to correct grammar errors, and the ability to give a reason why you are flagging a comment, and ability to block abusive users from commenting on your charts. This platform is severely lacking in these basic features which most social platforms provide.
cryptozwerg
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@some_guy, any argument why you believe 6k is very high price for XBT?For example I have rather huge bag of ETH , most of it from mining. My production price for ETH is ~135 $, after the price felt under that line I reduced the production power and started adding on top of my bag, DCA-ing the whole bag to 119 avg. price. I am saying this because I think there is rather high chance we will see ETH going at sub $80 lvls by the end of Q1 (pretty much same movement BTC did from 6 to 3k), but I still consider my buys in 130-98 territory very nice deals. As a long time investor I have this rather simple plan- I'll either sell with 1st profit at >$250, or I'll drawn with huge investment into ETH waiting it to go to zero. Do you know where is the difference in my way of thinking and your ideas- I have the option to wait even for years, since I didn't putted my all into crypto alone before all, and more than that, I have steady incomes. So I can afford to wait, my whole game is to reduce the avg. price of my position every time the market opens opportunity for this. Like @goldbug1 said pretty well- I don't need to scalp pennies in order to make profitable trades...
some_guy
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@cryptozwerg, i dont think 6k is high, i think its pathetically low compared to BTC's real value against USD. I'm in agreement that this is all 'good buy' territory, if you're __investing__. Go read the 6k recommendation to buy, among other ones - I'm only suggesting that folks do some critical thinking and not just listen to a good orator talk them out of their own common sense.
cryptozwerg
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@some_guy, In my opinion you are looking at it from the wrong angle. I am not some fanboy of Andrew or a BTC maximalist, but I am following this circus TV for a while now and I can tell you this: as a way of thinking, interacting with these markets and building a long strategies you can't find any better mentor than @goldbug1 and @MarcPMarkets ,and I am not even among their paid members. The are providing very valuable overview on the crypto markets in general, so my advice to you is instead of trying to troll them better listen what they are saying. Not telling you to do just like they say, only saying to try to get into their shoes before complaining next time for "bad calls". Tyvm!
goldbug1
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@cryptozwerg, thank you for the kind compliments crypto! Appreciate that!
cryptozwerg
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@goldbug1, well, I am rather amused from the fact that the really valuable insights and ideas you share are interpreted in a way beyond belief lol. I stand behind every word I said, you are indeed doing GREAT job with your analysis and if one is following he will learn a lot, but before all he will be able to start thinking as trader or/and investor. Heck, ppl are throwing crazy money at paid groups in telegram and they never learn the basic understanding of money flow and how market behave in a long run, something you are explaining in the most correct manner almost every time! Cheers and 10x again for your work!
goldbug1
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@some_guy, You are the noob if you do not realize some people have more than $500 to invest in instruments other than penny coins, and are less concerned about short term price action and long term investing. Just_some_troll