justsomeguy

BTC: Take a deep breath, then look at the daily

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Seems like there's nothing but doom and gloom in these parts as of late. People a throwing around numbers like 6,000 -- and lower! -- like they're a foregone conclusions. Hell, people are openly talking like this is the end of crypto forever.

I respectfully disagree.

It's not that I think this correction is over: the daily chart clearly shows SMA well over EMA/WMA, and that isn't something that get fixed over night. So there is clearly still room to fall, and quite frankly I expect it to get worse before it gets better. Nor do I think all the bears' points are without merit (especially those speaking to FA instead of TA). But when the world seems to be collapsing all around you? It's human instinct to dismiss evidence to the contrary.

So humor me for a moment and let's take a trip down memory lane. Back to a magical time when we were seeing massive gains as BTC' started to gain steam. This magical place? Five months ago. Back then it seemed like anything was possible. We went from $4,300 to $7,900 in a little over a month. The sky seemed the limit.

The angle of our growth channel during those magical sunny days? It's the exact same the level of growth we're seeing now. Before it was cause for unprecedented optimism. Now it's cause for earth shattering despair. Crazy how much of a difference five months can make.

Now I am not calling for a breakout any time soon. Nor do I think the current channel is likely to survive the test of time. But I do think that peoples' perspectives have been strongly impacted by the crazy ride we've been on the past few months. And I think that's preventing them from looking at the larger picture. Personally? I am short for the next month, but long for the next year. But don't listen to me: read the charts and make up your own minds.
Mar 15
Comment: Channel broke. Now we get to see if $7555 holds. If not, we could definitely be in for a big slide (next strong point I see is a bit under 6k).

For the short term the bears seem to be losing steam. About to have a MA cross on the hourly. But the daily still shows we have room to fall before this is over.
Mar 15
Comment: Got our bounce, but we're not safe yet. We need to hit (and hold!) at least 9k before we start to come out of this part of the cycle.
Mar 16
Comment: We're now looking at a pretty important resistance point for the short term (next 12-24 hrs). This line acted as a moderate support on the hourly. If it acts as a resist it could signal a trend reversal. Otherwise it could support our way up.

Mar 16
Comment: Bouncing around in the channel I mentioned earlier. Expect a few hundred dollar movement once it figures out where it's going.

This appears to be a bull flag so it could break up -- but in general I seriously distrust patterns on the 1h, so I'm taking a wait and see approach. If it does break up there's a chance for a quick swing trade before 9k for those interested. If it breaks down then we are liable to retest 7800.

Mar 16
Comment: Broke down then bounced off our trend line.

Over all this looks bearish short term. Though the fact that our new upward trend line held is a silver lining.
Bouncing around in the channel I mentioned earlier. Expect a few hundred dollar movement once it figures out where it's going.

This appears to be a bull flag so it could break up -- but in general I seriously distrust patterns on the 1h, so I'm taking a wait and see approach. If it does break up there's a chance for a quick swing trade before 9k for those interested. If it breaks down then we are liable to retest 7800.

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