Hello everyone,
I have taken a close look at the BTC price structure and analyzed what the market is currently showing me on the BTC/USD Bitfinex 4H Candle sticks.
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1) RSI, Stoch RSI, Momentum indicators are all neutral smack in the middle.
2) Full wave structure of the run or as close to what I believe it was, is here, labeled as ABCDE on the Primary movements.
3) With that, we have support zones identified, green is good support, yellow is weak and blue is strong support.
4) Red is resistance zones with a massive overhead resistance at just over 11k...
5) Looks like a symmetric triangle...
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Based on this information we are in 1 of 2 scenarios.
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Scenario#1
-Large correction before the next movement, retrace of ABC along the big red letters.
-Stop at the green support area a 3rd time before moving up is unlikely, more likely is the stop to the blue area at around 8k.
Scenario#2
-We are following extended impulse waves with I,II,II and so on...
-These are indicated by the teal Roman numerals.
-A drop below the weak support, as long as it doesn't break the triangle does not violate the starting point of the impulse waves.
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I usually don't analyze something unless I have a position in it, but for BTC, I made an exception as it indicates overall crypto market direction.
Based on what I have analyzed, I have decided to stay out of the market as the direction of the price action is a dice roll with a higher chance to the down side. Why do I believe the down side is more likely? Because of the resistance zone and psychological barrier of $10,000.00.
-I will enter a buy if BTC passes 10k and finds support along the old resistance level at point 4. Will set an appropriate stop loss of 3-5% with a potential gain of 10-14%.
-BTC will make a choice before the end of the triangle... watch for it, up or down. Worst case scenario, it could take all the way till May 4th.
-Who knows, maybe it will be a Cinco de Mayo price celebration!
**With that said, I give you my final disclaimer. I am not giving financial advice in anyway. Any trades you decide to take are 100% your responsibility. That means you take on ALL the risk and at the same time ALL the reward or loss. Before you trade, I recommend doing your own research and never trading more than you can afford to burn to roast some yummy marshmallows.
-May BTC, reach Mars before Elon Musk
I have taken a close look at the BTC price structure and analyzed what the market is currently showing me on the BTC/USD Bitfinex 4H Candle sticks.
====================================================================
1) RSI, Stoch RSI, Momentum indicators are all neutral smack in the middle.
2) Full wave structure of the run or as close to what I believe it was, is here, labeled as ABCDE on the Primary movements.
3) With that, we have support zones identified, green is good support, yellow is weak and blue is strong support.
4) Red is resistance zones with a massive overhead resistance at just over 11k...
5) Looks like a symmetric triangle...
====================================================================
Based on this information we are in 1 of 2 scenarios.
====================================================================
Scenario#1
-Large correction before the next movement, retrace of ABC along the big red letters.
-Stop at the green support area a 3rd time before moving up is unlikely, more likely is the stop to the blue area at around 8k.
Scenario#2
-We are following extended impulse waves with I,II,II and so on...
-These are indicated by the teal Roman numerals.
-A drop below the weak support, as long as it doesn't break the triangle does not violate the starting point of the impulse waves.
====================================================================
I usually don't analyze something unless I have a position in it, but for BTC, I made an exception as it indicates overall crypto market direction.
Based on what I have analyzed, I have decided to stay out of the market as the direction of the price action is a dice roll with a higher chance to the down side. Why do I believe the down side is more likely? Because of the resistance zone and psychological barrier of $10,000.00.
-I will enter a buy if BTC passes 10k and finds support along the old resistance level at point 4. Will set an appropriate stop loss of 3-5% with a potential gain of 10-14%.
-BTC will make a choice before the end of the triangle... watch for it, up or down. Worst case scenario, it could take all the way till May 4th.
-Who knows, maybe it will be a Cinco de Mayo price celebration!
**With that said, I give you my final disclaimer. I am not giving financial advice in anyway. Any trades you decide to take are 100% your responsibility. That means you take on ALL the risk and at the same time ALL the reward or loss. Before you trade, I recommend doing your own research and never trading more than you can afford to burn to roast some yummy marshmallows.
-May BTC, reach Mars before Elon Musk
Comment:
One more photo without the indicators.
One more photo without the indicators.
Comment:
Scenario #1 - Extended wave still valid, changes the point of II and creates an even larger symmetrical triangle.
Scenario #2 - BEWARE this possibility. It fits just too well with the triangle, overheard established resistances, ABC correction and the bearish divergence on the RSI...
I'm thinking 70% chance of scenario #2 with a 30% chance of scenario#1 at this point.
Scenario #1 - Extended wave still valid, changes the point of II and creates an even larger symmetrical triangle.
Scenario #2 - BEWARE this possibility. It fits just too well with the triangle, overheard established resistances, ABC correction and the bearish divergence on the RSI...
I'm thinking 70% chance of scenario #2 with a 30% chance of scenario#1 at this point.
Close up picture of the triangle area showing Impulse 1 and II with white circles to make the areas easier to spot.