As mentioned in the last post, we saw the fall back after trying to defend $8460 but we didnt hit $7950 and we might not. We saw a little support from what may be an upper channel support riding about $1000 above the 5 year ascending trend line. At this point there appears to be one of two more probable medium term options for BTC.
#1 This upper channel holds and forces us into an ascending wedge with $9500 historic support/resistance topping the wedge. We break from the wedge around early/mid March 2020, if we break down there is a good chance we see the 5year ascending trend line again around $7850. If it breaks up then we likely see a run for $14k next.
#2 We fall down into a $1000 range channel that is forming just above the 5yr ascending trendline and we ride this channel slowly up until we are forced into a wedge that has a breakout somewhere around mid/late may. A break down would break the 5 year trendline and would be extremely negative for BTC, a break up would likely be a run to $14k. This channel offers a great trade opportunity by buying every time it touches the 5 year trend line and selling with a trailing stop loss to lock in gains.
In either scenario, any meaningful break below the 5 year trend line would be a strong sell signal. Any meaningful break above $9500 would indicate a breakout with a 50% upside potential
I believe BTC is fairly strong right now and there is a strong possibility of the #1 scenario playing out with a break out in March. The lines give strong advice when to consider an entry or exit but there is always a risk, this is not investment advice, DYOR.
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