jdharward

Bitcoin's April surge. A Trojan horse?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Okay, so please forgive my crude drawing of a Trojan horse here.

But this sort of bull trap that could be in play just reminds of me a Greek tragedy.

Okay, so a lot of fuss has been made over BTCUSD forming a golden cross yesterday. But considering that golden cross ONLY happened due to the initial $100M mega pump.

Let's talk about that pump. The short version people heard was a single anonymous order for $100M sent bitcoin's price surging 25% in like 30 minutes.

The buys were synchronized using trading software. The trigger could have been a manual or more likely, was set to "blow" upon certain technical conditions being met. The pump began following the closing of a 4 hour candle.

From there, it liquidated half a billion in shorts (cha ching for the pumpers, who would have made bets on this happening) and also causes FOMO buyers.

With such a long crypto winter, buyers and bag holders from 2017 have been anxiously waiting for the return of the bull. The bulls want this, sooo bad. And maybe they'll get it.

But honestly, I think this has all happened too early and we're due for one last big sell off before the bull run can begin in earnest. Late summer 2019 is what I had been tracking.

There's also the many other comparison charts to 2014/2015 where bitcoin did the same pump, before crashing down one last time, beginning the real bull run several months later.

The whole thing just strikes me as a giant setup.

But I could be totally wrong. Let's take a look at some technical s to see what can happen from here.

While we have a lot of oversold indicators, I think the bull push will probably continue right until the weekend.

The price could reach the 2.618 Fib extension line - roughly $5861. Maybe even wick to $6k

But there's so much resistance above $6k and there's not much new capital flowing into the market (except of course, new tether). I don't see the price going higher than $6k.

Now, while BTC has been having the best month in over a year, Alts have been having one of their worst.

The people behind the BTC pump are going to have two routes of cashing out. Cashing out to fiat, which some of it will be done or cashing out to alts.

I'm betting they will cash out to alts.

When will alts pump? Sometime between "now" and end of April would be my guess.

Then again, bitcoin's price could crash and take alts down even further with it. That's the worst case scenario.

Or, we could have a month ahead of us of Alt Spring...

Let's all hope for a snowy wet spring :)

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.