Bitcoin broke up through the daily downtrend line. However, the log downtrend line is still valid, which is shown in the chart. We can notice that we are in a descending broadening wedge, which usually touches the lower support 3-4 times before breaking out. The initial target when it breaks the falling wedge is going to be 25k$.
There are three possible situations at the moment:
1) Strong break out through the downtrend at 12800$ area. I don't think that this will be the case because it will mean BTC will be in a bullish run for the rest of the year and a new ATH will be achieved within few month?... I really doubt it.
2) A lot of sideway movement, which would mean ALTS will skyrocket.... really doubt it because Bitcoin is taking all of the media attention and the majority of the fresh money are not trading ALTS yet because of its high volatility (even more than BTC).. we can see that the market cap dropped almost by half because all of the new incomers thought the market was crashing, so I don't think they will risk trading alts at the moment.
3) Downtrend to the support of the wedge at around 4.2k which matches previous support/resistance levels, then breaking out of the wedge by early April, May. Then 25k and after that a new ATH by the end of the year (25k+) which is the most logical to me.
This will be my last Bitcoin chart in a while regardless of what happens. I have listed and went through all the possibilities, got nothing else to say. However, I will be posting some small updates on the tele group, and I will be answering your questions in private chat or in comments here. [Only regarding Bitcoin]
Good luck! DCFreak
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If you are thinking about entering the market... the 1 hr RSI is overbought, so we might see a short term drop soon. (better entry point)
Also have a stop loss... the market is far away from being safe and just as it went 1k up in 15 mins, it can easily go down 1k in 5 mins.
Your analysis are great but too much opinion is clouding this one.
Good luck to you my friend.
DCFreak
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@alanmasters, Much appreciated Alan!
I appreciate your feedback.
Bullion_Money
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Multiple time btc never broke 11,600. But this 4200 area seems like a teenagers wet dream.
DCFreak
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@Bullion_Money, dream or not its a possibility. If it happens, well I knew it was an option, if it doesn't another option will come in to play which I also accounted for because I listed all the different possibilities. thats trading to me.
Bullion_Money
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@DCFreak, I definitely like your options analysis. That way ppl can pick the most logical to them. As long as the options themselves are logical and yours are.
Gr8t work and thx
Joker1970
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@DCFreak, it is a possibility but not %60; may be %6 ...
DCFreak
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@ErsozSozer, welcome to crypto, everything is possible due to the volatility, fear and greed in the newly unstable market.
Good luck to you my friend.