History Might Rhyme Again
Looking at BTC on the 1D timeframe, a pattern seems to be forming, one that we’ve already seen twice this cycle.
🔎 March 2024:
Price made an ATH just above the 78.6% Fib, chopped around that level, then dropped below the 50MA first a fake-out, then the real break. After that came the drop below the 200MA.
All price action stayed confined between:
• 78.6% – 61.8%
• 61.8% – 50%
Meanwhile, RSI formed higher lows → a clear bullish divergence while price was making lower lows.
🔎 December 2024:
ATH at the 127.2% Fib level, same pattern: chop → fake-out under 50MA → real drop → break below 200MA.
Price again stayed confined between:
• 127.2% – 100%
• 100% – 78.6%
And again, RSI showed higher lows while price went lower, another bullish divergence.
🔎 Today:
ATH in July (or August, with just a few dollars difference), chop at 161.8% Fib, fake-out under 50MA, now real drop under 50MA. Price is getting close to the 200MA.
The big question:
Will it do the same again?
– Drop under the 200MA
– Trade between 161.8% – 127.2% and 127.2% – 100%
– Form a bullish divergence on RSI while making lower lows
If history rhymes, we could see BTC trade below $100K before forming the next major leg up.
🎯 Plan:
I’m preparing for this scenario and adjusting risk accordingly. High-leverage trades here need surgical precision.
📌 Mindset Reminder:
This is where patience and discipline get tested. It’s not just about charts, it’s about staying calm when fear takes over.
🟠 Macro Wildcard:
The Fed has already started cutting rates.
A rate cut in October could shift BTC’s trajectory upward, but a pause in October could just as easily push price lower.
🎯 Closing Line:
History may not repeat, but right now it’s rhyming loudly and I’m listening.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
Looking at BTC on the 1D timeframe, a pattern seems to be forming, one that we’ve already seen twice this cycle.
🔎 March 2024:
Price made an ATH just above the 78.6% Fib, chopped around that level, then dropped below the 50MA first a fake-out, then the real break. After that came the drop below the 200MA.
All price action stayed confined between:
• 78.6% – 61.8%
• 61.8% – 50%
Meanwhile, RSI formed higher lows → a clear bullish divergence while price was making lower lows.
🔎 December 2024:
ATH at the 127.2% Fib level, same pattern: chop → fake-out under 50MA → real drop → break below 200MA.
Price again stayed confined between:
• 127.2% – 100%
• 100% – 78.6%
And again, RSI showed higher lows while price went lower, another bullish divergence.
🔎 Today:
ATH in July (or August, with just a few dollars difference), chop at 161.8% Fib, fake-out under 50MA, now real drop under 50MA. Price is getting close to the 200MA.
The big question:
Will it do the same again?
– Drop under the 200MA
– Trade between 161.8% – 127.2% and 127.2% – 100%
– Form a bullish divergence on RSI while making lower lows
If history rhymes, we could see BTC trade below $100K before forming the next major leg up.
🎯 Plan:
I’m preparing for this scenario and adjusting risk accordingly. High-leverage trades here need surgical precision.
📌 Mindset Reminder:
This is where patience and discipline get tested. It’s not just about charts, it’s about staying calm when fear takes over.
🟠 Macro Wildcard:
The Fed has already started cutting rates.
A rate cut in October could shift BTC’s trajectory upward, but a pause in October could just as easily push price lower.
🎯 Closing Line:
History may not repeat, but right now it’s rhyming loudly and I’m listening.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
Trade active
Short Update — BTC (1D)Today price is testing the 50MA. What comes next? Nobody knows, but here’s my read: price may dance around the 50MA before any major move, while the 200MA sits close below, tempting for the bears.
I’m not long or short here, so no bias, just watching price action unfold.
One last note: after the December ’24 ATH, tariffs gave the market a reason to drop. After this summer’s ATH, we got rate-cut certainty. Now Q4 is ahead, and that makes me very curious about the next move.
Note
BTC Daily – History Isn’t Repeating, but It’s Definitely RhymingThe pattern continues to unfold almost exactly as mapped: rejection from the highs, breakdown below the 50MA, and price now approaching the 200MA.
At this stage, it’s not about predictions, it’s about recognizing rhythm.
Markets move in cycles of confidence and capitulation, and right now, we’re somewhere in between.
The structure looks heavy, but it’s familiar.
Every past correction that felt like the end eventually became the foundation for the next major leg up.
The key difference this time is macro.
The government shutdown talks, rate-cut uncertainty, and geopolitical noise are adding stress to an already cautious market.
Fear has re-entered, and that’s exactly where long-term opportunity quietly forms.
I’m watching how BTC behaves near the 200MA and 100K, levels that have previously reset both leverage and sentiment.
> History doesn’t repeat, but it teaches those who listen.
> Every rhyme is just another verse in the same story.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.