BITCOIN The 1W EMA200 candle closing is now the key..

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week its 2nd straight 1W candle above the 1W EMA200 (red trend-line), which now becomes the center focus of the market for one simple reason. During the 2022 Bear Cycle, it was the 1W EMA200 that supported BTC's 2nd selling wave once it hit it.

As you can see, the 1st selling wave found support on the 1W SMA100 (green trend-line), consolidating for several weeks (closing all weekly candles above it) before crashing into the 2nd wave. So far that held perfectly in the 2026 Bear Cycle as well, it even stayed below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as in 2022.

So now that the 2nd selling wave has found the 1W EMA200's Support, it remains to be seen if it will again consolidate there for a few weeks (on the 0.382 Fib as well this time), like BTC did in 2022, before crashing into the 3rd selling wave below the 1W SMA200 (orange trend-line).

Yet again it appears that the 1W SMA350 (black trend-line) is the level that Bitcoin will be looking for (at least) during this Bear Cycle as well.

So do you think we will consolidate again for some time around the current levels (1W EMA200) before a deeper dive? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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