I like most of your analysis! Very accurate. Nevertheless, here you forgot halving. After halving, it does not fall below the embarking price. Therefore, it should rise from 2024 March.
MichielVan_Kets
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@miladchikol, true, didn't think about that at all
but the point I'm trying to make is that it peaked as well end 2013 as 2017 all the way to the top, but not so in 2021, it was a flat top
so ... I'm wildly guessing that we might never again see those extreme peaks anymore = more stable
although by now I'm thinking we might see the opposite; extreme drops ... we've never seen a full drop ... it might be coming in the next few months ... and it might take several years for the bottoms to flatten out, just like the peaks did = even more stability
which matters, because that's pretty much requirement #1 for a world reserve currency ...
miladchikol
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@MichielVan_Kets, as you said it was not an extreme peak; therefore, I think no extreme drop too
MichielVan_Kets
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@miladchikol, I understand why you would say that, but I don't consider any of the previous drops extreme, despite the extreme peaks
so, if we do see a extreme drop now, well below 10k, then I would consider that the counter of the previous peaks
but ok, now I'm just wildly speculating ... we'll see ... I do think we're close to the bottom, but that bottom might be way lower than most people expect
miladchikol
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BTC main goal is to fight inflation; therefore, it ought to keep its growing pace indefinitely.
MichielVan_Kets
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@miladchikol, that's why I believe in that long term trend line; it's still following an upwards trend, with corrections, sure, but it is still going up, up and up in the long term
fomo_god
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It won't grow steady because of human fear and greed and it doesn't really take a lot of "fiat" money to move the price. The volatility is a byproduct of its deflationary nature as it gets more illiquid. The boom and bust cycles brought by the halving are also well known by now, and everyone wants to sell the top and buy the bottom. This is a zero sum game in the end.