Simple Wave Analysis This is a clear indication of a 3-3-5 Wave. Specifically a Expanding Flat Wave. These waves are notorious for trapping traders and this one is a massive one. When the Impulse wave ended at approx. 47k. The 1st WAVE A of the 3-3-5 Expanding Flat Wave began. We got 3 waves down to support line 38.5k. Then WAVE B (which is the extended wave ran up to 51.3k. We know this is an extended wave because it retrace to 1.618 Fib of WAVE A. This marks the broadening top we see right now. From here (and by RULE) Wave C must be a 5 wave way correction downside that extends past the bottom of WAVE A. This means price action will have to go AT A MINIMUM BELOW 38.5k. It is my opinion that this 1st 5 wave is just the start of a bigger 5-3-5 wave. Meaning this leg will take us down below 38.5K (maybe further).. there will be a temp retracement upside and then a potentially bigger downward correction to possible finish and find the bottom. This correction will be big, but it will give many the opportunity to get back into BTC at a lower price. The Bitcoin ETF was IMO a way of getting the masses into BTC on hype- directly at the top of this correction, only to have their investments wiped. The best bet is to hold if you have physical BTC. Its going to be a wild ride down, but hopefully this will help inform many. The BULL RUN is clearly over.
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Short entered 51.5K
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My short stop was def triggered, but of no worries. The chart (as stated) is not to scale. What we are seeing are repetitive patterns. Another extended corrective wave formed today. These are classic bull traps to get traders invested into the market, while top forms. The scale provides until March 31 for downside movement. So the movements we see from now till then are allowed and ok, and all a part of the corrective move to come. The next resistance is 56.1k and there are still over 30 days remaining in the cycle. It is noted that March 10-11 may be the top and from here we decline for the remainder of the time available in the cycle.
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There has been no correction in price action and BTC is well above the retracement point, I am still looking at what is forming here, and this may actually be 3rd wave of a much much larger wav. If there is no correction at the next resistance level of 63.2k... then this will take off to 80k...
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Correction the next resistance was correct as earlier mention 60.1k. BTC is at this point and if it slices thru... it continues up massively. Right now BTC is overbought and s it could flush down as anticipated, and if so this would be the larges scam wick I have ever seen... but I have no problems with it continuing to go up.
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In the event there is no retrace or correction at 61-62k (price above 63-64k... BTC may very well proceed to 76k with no problem at all. Please NOTE the 30day candle closes in 32 hrs. So the next 24-48 hrs should reveal something- esp if Price stagnates. If not, BTC is clear for takeoff to higher levels.
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Given the top was not called properly.. Ill have to redo this chart for what has transpired.
Why are so many traders trying to short into such strong momentum? I don't get it...
Moorsc0de
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@without_worries, Well I have been trading crypto and BTC since 2016-2017. Usually this time of year we see BTC corrections. Not only do you see the correction, but when As BTC gets near its top (TYPICALLY) you also see the run on alt coins (especially at this time of year). As BTC reaches its top you will see massive runs on certain altcoins preceding the BTC correction. We are seeing that right now. Its merely trying to determine this top of correction in order to begin profits downside. BTC is notorious for scam wicks and running up price for euphoria, then reversing 70+% S there are gains to be made (in the event BTC corrects). Momentum has been ongoing since Nov 2023, thats going on 4 months of bullish behavior. Thats a long time when you consider the gains. Most ppl only got in at ETF time in Jan... others like myself had been in since Nov 2023.