DanV
Long

$BTCUSD - Bitcoin in Intermediate Term Bullish

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
The longer term prospect for bitcoin is still not to hopeful and my "big arrow" remains in place. Based on my analysis alone, I will put up with all possible scorn from folks who just offer opinions which as I say are penny a dozen. However seriously as outlined in my last live session, I was looking for 50% retracement on BitStamp to 550-540 zone was duly met in spectacular manner on Saturday 14th June.

It would seem that my initial expectation was that we will get retest of that level, but on close analysis early Sunday morning London time, I was able to call for higher bottom almost on the dot as those who were present could confirm.

So for now I am willing to assume that we do have intermediate term higher bottom at 540 and are now in our final leg up towards 750 zone as round number but that it could be 720 or even 780. New price data will help narrow that range as we progress.

If we do complete that rising wedge consisting of 3-3-3-3-3 then it is terminal ending entire cycle from 340 low in April.

Incidentally the Time Symmetry you see with possible high round 26th June, that has been on my chart for few weeks now. Nothing to do with the proposed auctioning by the authorities un USA. Might be just coincident or may be TA does have place in the analysis and not just the never ending fundamental cries. Time will tell.

For those who have better grasp pf             Bicoincity will never agree to my seemingly twisted view but that is when I think the BULL will be completely confounded. If you want the reason for my view (right or wrong) feel free to check the recording out at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZ0t9BVLPA

But for now assuming the 540 low holds then I am willing to ride this up to referred upside target. The might consider going into hiding, or may be not.

Bitcoin Address for those who wish to tip - 1Q1jYasGiJxvvYNX2KwwmX8KGoXRMu9rAW

Enjoy the ride.

DanV
HamzaLeith
2 years ago
DanV, I love your idea's and respect your experience, but I hope that you don't mind if I disagree with you. I think that channel /wedge bottom wont hold!. What do you think about this scenario?
BTC BITSTAMP LONG TERM FORCAST
+1 Reply
DanV MOD HamzaLeith
2 years ago
Hi, thank you for your comment and appreciate your view as an alternative.

Whilst one can never say never. My reservation with your suggestion would be:

1. The decline from Jan 2014 high April low at 340 you have then labelled as 1-5. Wave 3 looks far too overlapping with major wicks on both sides. So whilst it might give the appearance, I think are not correct.

2. IN the Youtube video I have tried to explain the problem with those sables as I have already seem many others are applying similarly. But the main point is that if the decline from Jan is indeed 5 waves, then that would be considered wave c, hence potential end of the correction from Nov high as an abc zigzag. Suggesting we are in new bull market. If so what reason do we have that we now need sort of abc bounce and another abc decline from 680 May high?

3. The close consideration of the leg c from 420 is whilst dynamic, is difficult to identify 5 waves, To me it looks like small wave and then wave c with 5 waves topping around 680.

4. Whilst I also apply trendlines on RSI and sometime with good results, you cannot rely on that entirely for trendlines and pitchforks specially schiff or modified schiff, because, the indicator is bound by 0-100 range hence it does not have the opportunity to remain in the boundary of the pitchfork since by passage of time the indicator will drift away from the range or trend identified.

So for those reasons I cannot fee it possible at this stage for your view to play out, not for anyone to suggest that we have the major low in place at 340 already.

However on further price data should I reconsider my views I will not be stubborn and refuse. Thanks again.
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HamzaLeith DanV
2 years ago
Hi DanV, I thank you for the constructive feedback. First I would like to discuss your observation regarding the RSI not respecting the boundries of the pitchfork due to its small range. I can imagine you would think that, however the application in practice differs entirely. Please take a look at the image below and you tell me if you think the RSI (7) is not respecting the boundries.
snapshot


As for the classification of the that choppy leg being a correction leg and not an impulse. I think you are right! but If you take a look at Bitfinex you will also see that this new downwards move could very logically be a new downwards impulse.
snapshot


We will see what will happen. Wishing you good luck!
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HamzaLeith HamzaLeith
2 years ago
that blue leg (1-5) should be a correction wave as well btw sorry forgot to remove it
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DanV MOD HamzaLeith
2 years ago
OK, Based on your last chart above you know that wave c always have 5 waves. so if you look for 5 waves from 340 (April) low, I think you will find we have bit more upside before your suggested downtrend develops which I do agree with and which most in the Bitcoin Community is in denial for now. Thanks for your interaction.
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HamzaLeith DanV
2 years ago
Good point!, If you consider the last move to the downside as being wave iv then I agree with you. Although wave c could already be over as well (wave iv doesn't necessarily has to retrace all the way back to just above wave i) That is what is so frustrating about EW. You can always make the correct count afterwards!!. I think tonight and tomorrow will make things more clear. On the one hour chart things are about to get more clear...
snapshot
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DanV MOD HamzaLeith
2 years ago
It is possible. But so far we have potential 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal in the making in my view. Hence the current move is the last zigzag of the wave v of "C". it could be truncated but do not look proportional to others so for now, further upside is more likely.
+1 Reply
HamzaLeith DanV
2 years ago
yes, if price rises above 610 I will definitely switch positions with 750-790 as a target
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ryopphdi
2 years ago
Hi Dan,

I agree that terminal diagonal would confuse bulls a lot.

However I am not convinced we can expect terminal diagonal at current place? Should not ending diagonal finish some trend? But we do not have any trend now. What you are suggesting is ending diagonal as the end of wave B during flat correction. Is this OK?
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
2 years ago
I think you might have misunderstood. The ending diagonal is the entire price action since 340 low in the for of what I believe is 3-3-3-3-3 which will conclude around 720-750 zone. So now from the 5410 low in Stamp, we are looking to zigzag leg up for completion. Hope this helps to clarify. Thanks for asking the question.
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ryopphdi DanV
2 years ago
What I meant was:
- wave A finished in December 2013
- since then we are within wave B which is flat correction (you suggest running flat)
- ending diagonal is subwave y of this wave B (another way to label it is to call it subwave c)

Now my question was if such a wave y (or c) can be ending diagonal.

However after asking this question I've seen your latest video and you seem to confirm that such a scenario is feasible. Before this I thought that ending diagonal should end an impulse move (subwave 5) of such a move.

Thank you
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
2 years ago
Hi Thanks for your comment. Perhaps we have wave C of the running flat from 340 low. It is so far being marked by 3 swings in every swing as ending diagonal could show even though wave c with 5 waves is impulsive. But instead of 5-3-5-3-5 impulse, we get 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal the shape of rising wedge. If this does play out then significant downside move of the top be it @ 700 or higher is almost guaranteed with last low being retested and even forming new lower low. Hope this helps.
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ryopphdi DanV
2 years ago
Thanks for explanation of ending diagonal in wave C. This is new to me.

Myself I also think retest of previous low is serious possibility.
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Corelianer
2 years ago
I like the youtube video with all the detailed explaination. Normally I'm used to hear from scenarios and you seem to have just 1 scenario with the big red arrow. On your youtube video (on the other hand) on the logarithmic scale it looks like a trend is over and a new trend is going to start. Don't you think we could go over to a more kind of sideway-move?
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DanV MOD Corelianer
2 years ago
Hi, thanks for your comments and question. I am glad you like the my Youtube videos. There are times when we have to have alternatives. At other times pattern appears clear enough so alternative would just not add to the analysis.

Regrading sideways move. it depends on what you mean. If you consider from Nov 2013 high then we could be said to be in the sideways market, if you consider from 540 sideways ie 540-720 as lower and upper ranges. than I say it is not likely. Unless you assume that we have major bottom already established at 340 and that we are in new bullish move to the upside. I have tries to explain why that does not seem feasible in the videos.

Therefore, retesting the last 340 low is most likely or even declining to 400 once we top out on this bounce. But that leg is expected to be in 5 waves. If this expectation fails, then we could be in very complex combination of correction. One that could last for many months to come.

So rather than have all possible outcomes, I am proposing one that seems most likely right now and deal with other s when they are relevant. Hope this helps.
+2 Reply
Corelianer DanV
2 years ago
You give all data points in the chart an equal weight. From my expierience with the Bitcoin people, everyone would have been very happy to buy at the extremes lows. But they where in such a short timeframe, that it was impossible to actually get some Bitcoins at this price. So I think it's better to focus on the weekly charts than on the daily charts. I also think that the price that miners have to invest in order to get their investment back is important. Therefore I don't think we will brake the 420 again, but I will be ready to buy if your scenario is going to take place.
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DanV MOD Corelianer
2 years ago
That sounds logical and a trading plan. Thanks.
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Liguang
2 years ago
hehe
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GunArm
2 years ago
I do not blindly subscribes to the endless log-channel bitcoin bubble cycle hypothesis, nor do I have the analytical ability to create my own counter prognosis, but it does seem (to my laymen eyes) that the bubble/aftershock pattern is decently similar to the last two bubbles. A question I find interesting is when others will give up their bubble hopes. Any coming bubble is already behind "schedule", but your drop to 340 or below would obliterate the bubble-pattern entirely, do you agree?
+1 Reply
DanV MOD GunArm
2 years ago
Hi. I think that most who subscribe to Bubble are firstly over emphasising the seeming positive news flow and fundamentals. Based on their assessment, there is never any variation of likely out come but be bullish and that they are still focusing on price action of 2012 and 2013 in which they experience massive moves to the upside after comparable corrections.

What they do not seem to grasp is that those development of part of larger cycle which was in infancy. Now that cycle is maturing they could not have same out come. As the cycle mature the upside moves are generally less impressive and correction can take lot longer than previous instances specially after parabolic move lake in 2013.

Based on my analysis and EW interpretation, I am expecting another big drop to 340 or lower. during which time general bullish sentiments will change to despair before the low is in. So the Bubble story might still reappear but much later than many think. May be towards late 2014 or early 2015 before meaningful low is i and new cycle could develop.

So yes I agree with your summary.
+4 Reply
GunArm DanV
2 years ago
Interesting, thanks!
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