Got whacked in this today but got out most of the position before it went parabolic 10%. Waited a while to see how this plays out at the resistance to see if it's a bull break or more inline with a stop run. Feels like a stop run. I think we've been a bit complacent here since the previous overall trade plan was working so well. Conditions for the contingency plan did not fill (Linked). We'll switch to bull bias if it does, but shorting again at 55K.
I think our mistake here has been assuming the reversal off the 76% fib and not accounting for it making a bear trap off this and running up to the 86% fib. We've seen this happening a lot on smaller charts so it is a risk we should have considered beforehand. But now we have more context, we can go for the higher RR trade again and still do well on the round trip if the trade is going to work.
Biggest BTC position on now. Closest to the area where I'd know I am wrong, this is always where I like to trade biggest. When it takes a little to find out I'm wrong and I can make a lot if the market moves my way.
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BTC is now my biggest short position again at 55,350.
@MrMarketMaker, You extrapolate short-term variance to think you understand a long-term success rate. But enough yrs of real experience have taught me the value of patience and persistence. I don't have to win them all. Just have to end up with all the money at the end.
holeyprofit
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@FaridoB, Thanks for sharing your opinion. We'll let the market decide.
MrMarketMaker
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Your mistake is that you have no strategy.
“This looks like it’s been going up too long. Let me time the top”.
Better chances at a casino, friend.
holeyprofit
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@MrMarketMaker, No one from the analysis team reads these comments. You should probably be made aware of that. The target win rate is 40% on 1:3 or high RR and it's hit consistently. No one really cares if you agree with the methodology, friend.
holeyprofit
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@MrMarketMaker, Can we be expecting this comment to be deleted if you're wrong too? Like on the other post?
It does not matter. Seriously, no one reads these.
MrMarketMaker
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@holeyprofit, what am I deleting? I have nothing to delete, youve been wrong for almost a week straight now.