Choose your fractal: The upside down fractal of Summer 2021 or the bottom of 2018?
Bull-case:
Many on-chain metrics have reflected macro-low points like dormancy flow. Other indicators such as the weekly MFI are also indicating that 33k was at or near historic lows.
The 4H OBV is interesting especially when compared to the 29k to 69k run we had last Summer. The current on-balance-volume that we've accrued is nearly identical volume to that of a 40k move upwards in price; however, we're only up 12k. This indicates buying interest to that of last Summer all while the price has remained relatively flat - this is known as accumulation. Take a look for yourself & compare the covid dump & reaccumulation OBV to the present moment. Many headwinds are behind us such as the beginning of rate hikes (forecasted bottom signal) as well as war in Ukraine. The next big headwind is the inevitable recession that usually follows after the yield curve inversion. The inversion looks to happen within the next 6 months, and historically, recession strikes 6-12 months after that. With a potential forecastable recession at least 12 months away, this may give the market makers one last chance to push to all-time highs and finally the parabolic run up I've been waiting for. Also note that the GMC apes seem to be back in town judging by those stocks.
Bear-case:
Dropping below the 50 weekly MA has historically meant that we touch the 200 weekly MA which is roughly 20k. Weekly RSI & MACD are very low which simply reflects the momentum isn't there for any major run upwards. We're not seeing whales that hold 1000+ BTC buying much. Whale #3 on bitinfocharts has been selling on the way up here. The weekly MFI in 2011 & 2013 had another 40% dump or so after reaching oversold (then that was the bottom). We're still testing the Bullmarket Support Band (indicator). Historically, if we go above it, we need to find support on it before continuing upwards. We haven't reached 27k yet, which makes me a bit hesitant as that's my predicted mid-cycle bottom based on every past cycle. We've touched the 1.618, but like in 2017, we then found a little more downside and touched the 1.5 fib (see related ideas).
My bet:
Myself & many other on-chain analysts have more reasons to be bullish than bearish.
Bull-case:
Many on-chain metrics have reflected macro-low points like dormancy flow. Other indicators such as the weekly MFI are also indicating that 33k was at or near historic lows.
The 4H OBV is interesting especially when compared to the 29k to 69k run we had last Summer. The current on-balance-volume that we've accrued is nearly identical volume to that of a 40k move upwards in price; however, we're only up 12k. This indicates buying interest to that of last Summer all while the price has remained relatively flat - this is known as accumulation. Take a look for yourself & compare the covid dump & reaccumulation OBV to the present moment. Many headwinds are behind us such as the beginning of rate hikes (forecasted bottom signal) as well as war in Ukraine. The next big headwind is the inevitable recession that usually follows after the yield curve inversion. The inversion looks to happen within the next 6 months, and historically, recession strikes 6-12 months after that. With a potential forecastable recession at least 12 months away, this may give the market makers one last chance to push to all-time highs and finally the parabolic run up I've been waiting for. Also note that the GMC apes seem to be back in town judging by those stocks.
Bear-case:
Dropping below the 50 weekly MA has historically meant that we touch the 200 weekly MA which is roughly 20k. Weekly RSI & MACD are very low which simply reflects the momentum isn't there for any major run upwards. We're not seeing whales that hold 1000+ BTC buying much. Whale #3 on bitinfocharts has been selling on the way up here. The weekly MFI in 2011 & 2013 had another 40% dump or so after reaching oversold (then that was the bottom). We're still testing the Bullmarket Support Band (indicator). Historically, if we go above it, we need to find support on it before continuing upwards. We haven't reached 27k yet, which makes me a bit hesitant as that's my predicted mid-cycle bottom based on every past cycle. We've touched the 1.618, but like in 2017, we then found a little more downside and touched the 1.5 fib (see related ideas).
My bet:
Myself & many other on-chain analysts have more reasons to be bullish than bearish.
Trade active:
I wish I updated this earlier as it looks like hindsight but, I did see the 4H OBV bearishly diverge when we hit 47k again & anticipated more downside. This is how I anticipate the bullish downside to play out.
Comment:
not particularly sold this is the bottom. 42.2k we'll see if there's any divergences
Comment:
crazy up & downs. no real sense of direction. If I had to bet, small downside in the next day or so with upside in the next week? 4H is a pretty big bullish divergence
Comment:
touched .618, my expectation is that this holds. stop loss at 41k
Comment:
whale #3 is also accumulating at the moment (look up rich list on bitinfocharts)
