MrRenev
Education

Happy anniversary Bitcoin.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
From a 1989 article in the The Wall Street Journal, by Victor Niederhoffer, speculator:


Speculators don't only create bubbles (not sure short term speculators make bubbles happen, they might actually smooth them).

The Federal Reserve was created by a US president to separate the money supply from the government.
But they ended up being control freaks very destructive. I'll make another idea more detailed on that, in particular on the Bretton Woods system.

Satoshi in his white paper, published 11 years ago, said:

And 6 months later he said:
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust."

I do not know a single Fiat currency outside of the British Pound that stood the test of time.

And just 4 months after this, Bernanke told US politicians
"The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt". Because it was temporary apparently.

Today the FED has pumped the stock market to a point where the rich are so rich and the poor so poor than 1/3 of US citizen get in debt just to eat (corporate buybacks did not help).

Europe is not better. Some countries even have negative interest rates and they are looking into "deep negative" rates, like -10% a year.
The IMF has a guide on Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/I...

The central banks are debasing currencies. And it's actually hurting the 90%. They keep pushing this pyramid scheme up.

The problem is, a peer to peer system can't even fight those low IQ central authorities, because they are just going to ban it.

They're going to have to end up in jail. The UK drifted to the right, the US drifted right, but also left, actually very far left it's scary.
Those central morons that think they are helping (are they really that stupid? It has to be intentional) won't stop, and won't let people save cash, buy gold .
So maybe citizen voting far left or right is necessary. But do those politicians understand they have to get rid of the central banks (or reduce their powers)?
All I hear is "white man bad, rich people evil, let's stop progress" it's like none of them has a clue what the real issues are.


Bitcoin reached a point where it went into a mania attracting alot of gullible unskilled speculators excited by stories of "Bitcoin millionaires".
The tech reached its saturation point, it can't scale further, and there is very low interest in using it as a viable currency.
I hope it will remain in history as a great prototype and not just a speculative bubble that cause "innocent people" to lose their shirts.



Bitcoin ended up being a ponzi/pyramid scheme, with early adopters making a huge amount of money on the back of late adopters.
But anyway, it possibly opened the way.


Central banks have done so much harm. Over and over. Just like governments trying to prevent traders from trading or forcing prices.
Take the example of oil demand being high on the east coast because it's terribly cold, and demand is very low on the west coast.
When the government forces a price, traders have no incentive to buy cheap on the west and sell high on the east (as price is not moving even with supply and demand varying).
And so on the west coast they warm their swimming pools they don't use, while on the east there is not enough Oil for everyone and people are cold.

I could list so many examples. Over and over same story.

Perhaps we could evolve into having currencies that are not completely controlled by some central authority.
The gullible victims that are dreaming of lambos would really love to see their favorite ponzi scheme be bought by everyone (greater fools).

But I have a better solution: The free market. Let's let currencies not be controlled in such a way, or very minimally, let's let the stock market not be controlled, and let them fluctuate naturally as they should.

Ultimately it does not even matter what currency we use, it's just a number to help make things convenient, to help with trade. As long as it has the basic qualities it's all good.

Central institutions hear about Bitcoin and immediately they want to control it... Risible...
Crypto gambling moonboys don't care of course, but using a crypto will serve no purpose if it is fully controlled by a central bank .
What we really need is to get rid of ultra controlling and manipulative central authorities. Central banks power must be reduced. Governments too.
Their role should be of regulation, administration, resolving conflicts, governing the military (with limitations)...
Not manipulating and spending like degens.

Look around, there are great examples of centralized systems, decentralized ones, and mixed. But I think the best ones are a fusion of both.
Just some examples off the top of my head...

Central powers have to stop sticking their filthy paws everywhere, preventing innovation and causing poverty and generally pain & destruction.
Let people with a financial incentive to do good, participate freely in the economy.
There is no simple workaround. We have to get rid of all controlling central authorities. No alternative. Just like Ron Swanson said.

Satoshi was right. We need to get rid of central institutions.
Nov 02
Comment: This graphic I think sums it up quite elegantly.
You do not fight a horrible system with another, opposite, horrible system.


And about the price.
11 years of ponzi... Well it's over now.

At the very start absolutely no one would ever dream of putting any money into BTC. The few that did lucked out and made thousands with spare change, or millions with a few hundreds.

Then there was MtGox, and everybody thought it was over. "Bitcoin is dead", "exit scam"

But they were wrong, and BTC reached the whole world.

And now, of course, everybody is in. And after the great sucker rally of 2019, every one is bullish. Everyone involved in BTC is persuaded it will go up again.
Traders sentiment is over 80% bull.
This is how it always ends.

Bullish sentiment at ath:
Nov 02
Comment: I made a more general idea about currencies, what requirements they have, and I looked at government fiats, bitcoin/crypto, and precious metals, and how they score on each requirements.

Nov 03
Comment: Bitcoin bagholders always talk about missing the train.
Train? What train? The 2.7% a month train? The 4% a month train?


The 3% a month train maybe? Or the 2% a month train?

Or maybe the 0.48% a month with 62% drawdown train. HAHA!

The goal of traders with a few years experience, that were not born with mum and dad money, is to make big % returns with little drawdown, possibly take bigger than usual risk until they have a big account, big enough to be able to live off it making small % returns.

A system that gives you 2% a month with 50% drawdown is ABSOLUTE GARBAGE.
And this is the best it can do? This is what gets them excited? Sitting throught 80% drawdown in 2014 and 2018 to make 2% a month?
They actually think this is good XD
Institutions will never join. Gotten much bigger BTC will never get as good returns as in 2012 2015 etc, and even that wasn't that great.

You know why Bitcoin investors get excited by awful results?

If you had 1k and bought a Bitcoin years ago, you maybe have 10k now.
If you consider you have sold at 20k then you might have sold at 1000 then, why not? Why not 5000?
If you got a decent edge with a PF of 2 and are willing to risk 85% drawdown you can do so much better than this.

Ponzi coin baghodlers...
Clueless deperate to make money STRUGGLERS.
Nov 05
Comment: Happy birthday giant ponzi scheme.

You had willy bot, you had tether.

Today is a big day, or rather yesterday was.

Bitcoin for its birthday got a wonderful surprise.

Finally, it has been proven that it was all one big ponzi and the price was fake.

A forensic study found that tethers, a digital currency, being traded for bitcoins, revealed a pattern of manipulation during the 2017 cryprocurrency boom.

“Almost the entire price impact can be attributed to this one large player,” finance professors John Griffin and Amin Shams wrote.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/study-si...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitco...

This might be a signal for all wash trading, trans-fee, and other crook exchanges to exit scam.

I'm not sure the average Bitcoin holder, being so "unsophisticated" as he is, will sell.

It's not entirely possible the price keeps going up.
A new criminal, could even be binance, could start manipulating the price up, making the holders very happy, even getting them to buy more.

But at some point I have to wonder, how stupid can these "unsophisticated investors" be?

Ultimately, it gets a simple question of intelligence, and I worry, how will regulators react?
We can't seriously be letting those people trade the markets.

I REFUSE to be taken the right to trade my own money just because of a couple of brainfarts.
The fact that jellyfish have survived for 650 million years despite not having brains gives hope to many people.
For the record, the FED was NOT created by a president. It was created at the begining of the XX century by a group of magnates, such as JP Morgan and Rockefeller to stop the banking madness of the end of XIX century by creating an regulating/emitting entitity which is known today as Federal Reserve.
Reply
I can't complain because I made more money than I would have in 20 years time. I caught a nice tide but Bitfinex was directly tied to Mossack Fonseca. Bitcoin was used as a vehicle for one of the greatest scams of all time.
Reply
lots of problems and zero solutions -guess hindsight is 20/20
Reply
“Almost the entire price impact can be attributed to this one large player,” finance professors John Griffin and Amin Shams wrote."

Studies like those are dime a dozen. Just like your analysis. :)
+1 Reply
The stopped caring about the argument the moment I read McDonalds - centralization gone right. It is the crappiest and the most tasteless food I have ever tried in my life. Junk food tastes so terrible that I feel like vomiting. A McDonalds can never ever match the quality of decentralized system in which purchase veggies and meat directly from the farmer and use it on the same day. Nor can the supermarkets match the quality of small stores (they just sell cheap stuff). Personally it feels machine like with no human interaction what you would get at a family run store. The fact is most people cannot afford to pay for the quality because of the worthless fiat, which is why almost all of these centralized businesses are actually popular.
+2 Reply
"Bitcoin ended up being a ponzi/pyramid scheme, with early adopters making a huge amount of money on the back of late adopters."

You just defined any deflationary currency versus fiat. I could use the same words for Gold (Gold was $20 in 1920 and $200 in 2000). same goes for stocks, real estate, or anything that has a limited supply. You clearly have very limited understanding of what a ponzi scheme is.
+2 Reply
bits2sats bits2sats
@bits2sats, On the contrary the reverse is true for fiat because people who hold fiat the longest have the least amount of wealth. This basic demand supply economics.
+1 Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar Shows How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Help Center Refer a friend Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Refer a friend My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out