From a 1989 article in the The Wall Street Journal, by Victor Niederhoffer, speculator:
Speculators don't only create bubbles (not sure short term speculators make bubbles happen, they might actually smooth them).
The Federal Reserve was created by a US president to separate the money supply from the government. But they ended up being control freaks very destructive. I'll make another idea more detailed on that, in particular on the Bretton Woods system.
Satoshi in his white paper, published 11 years ago, said:
And 6 months later he said: "The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust."
I do not know a single Fiat currency outside of the British Pound that stood the test of time.
And just 4 months after this, Bernanke told US politicians "The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt". Because it was temporary apparently.
Today the FED has pumped the stock market to a point where the rich are so rich and the poor so poor than 1/3 of US citizen get in debt just to eat (corporate buybacks did not help).
The central banks are debasing currencies. And it's actually hurting the 90%. They keep pushing this pyramid scheme up.
The problem is, a peer to peer system can't even fight those low IQ central authorities, because they are just going to ban it.
They're going to have to end up in jail. The UK drifted to the right, the US drifted right, but also left, actually very far left it's scary. Those central morons that think they are helping (are they really that stupid? It has to be intentional) won't stop, and won't let people save cash, buy gold. So maybe citizen voting far left or right is necessary. But do those politicians understand they have to get rid of the central banks (or reduce their powers)? All I hear is "white man bad, rich people evil, let's stop progress" it's like none of them has a clue what the real issues are.
Bitcoin reached a point where it went into a mania attracting alot of gullible unskilled speculators excited by stories of "Bitcoin millionaires". The tech reached its saturation point, it can't scale further, and there is very low interest in using it as a viable currency. I hope it will remain in history as a great prototype and not just a speculative bubble that cause "innocent people" to lose their shirts.
Bitcoin ended up being a ponzi/pyramid scheme, with early adopters making a huge amount of money on the back of late adopters. But anyway, it possibly opened the way.
Central banks have done so much harm. Over and over. Just like governments trying to prevent traders from trading or forcing prices. Take the example of oil demand being high on the east coast because it's terribly cold, and demand is very low on the west coast. When the government forces a price, traders have no incentive to buy cheap on the west and sell high on the east (as price is not moving even with supply and demand varying). And so on the west coast they warm their swimming pools they don't use, while on the east there is not enough Oil for everyone and people are cold.
I could list so many examples. Over and over same story.
Perhaps we could evolve into having currencies that are not completely controlled by some central authority. The gullible victims that are dreaming of lambos would really love to see their favorite ponzi scheme be bought by everyone (greater fools).
But I have a better solution: The free market. Let's let currencies not be controlled in such a way, or very minimally, let's let the stock market not be controlled, and let them fluctuate naturally as they should.
Ultimately it does not even matter what currency we use, it's just a number to help make things convenient, to help with trade. As long as it has the basic qualities it's all good.
Central institutions hear about Bitcoin and immediately they want to control it... Risible... Crypto gambling moonboys don't care of course, but using a crypto will serve no purpose if it is fully controlled by a central bank. What we really need is to get rid of ultra controlling and manipulative central authorities. Central banks power must be reduced. Governments too. Their role should be of regulation, administration, resolving conflicts, governing the military (with limitations)... Not manipulating and spending like degens.
Look around, there are great examples of centralized systems, decentralized ones, and mixed. But I think the best ones are a fusion of both. Just some examples off the top of my head...
Central powers have to stop sticking their filthy paws everywhere, preventing innovation and causing poverty and generally pain & destruction. Let people with a financial incentive to do good, participate freely in the economy. There is no simple workaround. We have to get rid of all controlling central authorities. No alternative. Just like Ron Swanson said.
Satoshi was right. We need to get rid of central institutions.
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This graphic I think sums it up quite elegantly. You do not fight a horrible system with another, opposite, horrible system.
And about the price. 11 years of ponzi... Well it's over now.
At the very start absolutely no one would ever dream of putting any money into BTC. The few that did lucked out and made thousands with spare change, or millions with a few hundreds.
Then there was MtGox, and everybody thought it was over. "Bitcoin is dead", "exit scam"
But they were wrong, and BTC reached the whole world.
And now, of course, everybody is in. And after the great sucker rally of 2019, every one is bullish. Everyone involved in BTC is persuaded it will go up again. Traders sentiment is over 80% bull. This is how it always ends.
Bullish sentiment at ath:
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I made a more general idea about currencies, what requirements they have, and I looked at government fiats, bitcoin/crypto, and precious metals, and how they score on each requirements.
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Bitcoin bagholders always talk about missing the train. Train? What train? The 2.7% a month train? The 4% a month train?
The 3% a month train maybe? Or the 2% a month train?
Or maybe the 0.48% a month with 62% drawdown train. HAHA!
The goal of traders with a few years experience, that were not born with mum and dad money, is to make big % returns with little drawdown, possibly take bigger than usual risk until they have a big account, big enough to be able to live off it making small % returns.
A system that gives you 2% a month with 50% drawdown is ABSOLUTE GARBAGE. And this is the best it can do? This is what gets them excited? Sitting throught 80% drawdown in 2014 and 2018 to make 2% a month? They actually think this is good XD Institutions will never join. Gotten much bigger BTC will never get as good returns as in 2012 2015 etc, and even that wasn't that great.
You know why Bitcoin investors get excited by awful results?
If you had 1k and bought a Bitcoin years ago, you maybe have 10k now. If you consider you have sold at 20k then you might have sold at 1000 then, why not? Why not 5000? If you got a decent edge with a PF of 2 and are willing to risk 85% drawdown you can do so much better than this.
Ponzi coin baghodlers... Clueless deperate to make money STRUGGLERS.
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Happy birthday giant ponzi scheme.
You had willy bot, you had tether.
Today is a big day, or rather yesterday was.
Bitcoin for its birthday got a wonderful surprise.
Finally, it has been proven that it was all one big ponzi and the price was fake.
A forensic study found that tethers, a digital currency, being traded for bitcoins, revealed a pattern of manipulation during the 2017 cryprocurrency boom.
“Almost the entire price impact can be attributed to this one large player,” finance professors John Griffin and Amin Shams wrote.
This might be a signal for all wash trading, trans-fee, and other crook exchanges to exit scam.
I'm not sure the average Bitcoin holder, being so "unsophisticated" as he is, will sell.
It's not entirely possible the price keeps going up. A new criminal, could even be binance, could start manipulating the price up, making the holders very happy, even getting them to buy more.
But at some point I have to wonder, how stupid can these "unsophisticated investors" be?
Ultimately, it gets a simple question of intelligence, and I worry, how will regulators react? We can't seriously be letting those people trade the markets.
I REFUSE to be taken the right to trade my own money just because of a couple of brainfarts.
Bitcoin is great store of value due to the hardness of it, GREAT store of value and even greater money. USD DOLLAR BILLS are shit store of value which is proven by the charts. Listen pal. Value is subjective in the eyes of a person that is valuing it and based on the value of bitcoin right now after 10 years you can't fucking say bitcoin is fcking worthless while all it has been doing for the past 10 years was going up. Listen the collector of stones might find value in precious stone that you probably wouldn't and even though you wouldn't pay a cent for its good looks, some people would pay over 100 bucks to have it. AND ITS FUCKING NORMAL CUZ VALUE IS SUBJECTIVE. IF today I chose to erase all those files on your computer and all the charts that you've written and made, it would mean nothing to me cuz all I see is a bunch of nonsense crap, but to you I am pretty sure, it'd make you pay me atleast something to keep them here and thats normal! Listen, maybe you don't find value in bitcoin but let me tell you that a lot of people does find value in it, they find value in decentralization, scarcity, scalability, sending money accross the globe without interventions, maybe that't not valuable to you but it is valuable to alot of people i've met in person or online, which means it is not up to you to judge or decide whether bitcoin is a store of value or not, let the people decide and based on the past 10 years and the price it has reached so far, YES my boy, bitcoin is store of value, actually better store of value than anything we've had in the last probably 100 years. It's time to face reality not your desire and maybe consider buying some, or start crying once it leaves you behind.
Gringo1nlx
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@Gringo1nlx, excuse the mistake, not so scalable yet but they are working on it...
MrRenev
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@Gringo1nlx, us dollar bills were never designed to be stores of value lol, don't need to look at any chart to find out.
Bitcoin is an awful store of value not because of my opinion, but because of the definition...
What is a Store Of Value
A store of value is an asset that maintains its value without depreciating. Gold and other metals are good stores of value as their shelf lives are essentially perpetual, whereas a perishable good (e.g., milk) is a poor store of value due to its propensity to decay. Interest-bearing assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds), are very good stores of value because they generate interest income and their principal balances are backed by legal contracts.
+ small plus even if gold drops 100% in price and no one wants it, you still hold some metal that can be used for electronics or something.
Bonds are legal contracts, near guarenteed. Nothing is 100% safe, but those get pretty close.
Why do you even care? Bitcoin was never designed to be a store of value. It's not important. When it failed as a currency greedy moonboys that wanted greater fools to buy started saying "ok ok it is bad as a currency but that's because it is a store of value, please buy my bags". But any one with half a brain knows that is not true.
The definition I gave, I shouldn't even have posted that. There are plenty of different definitions, some say a currency should be a store of value. Just check the flower, same. A currency, the more it has, the better I guess. Don't have to have everything. But personally I think even as not a store of value it should have at least some store of value qualities, as not drifting too much and being relatively safe/stable. It's unusable otherwise. But doesn't have to be the perfect ultimate store of value. Didn't want to add a textblock to explain that.
Anyway, the store of value aspect is just 1, and not the most important one.
What do you mean "hardness"?
Gringo1nlx
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@MrRenev, Us dollar bills were designed to exchange for something that was store of value issued by fed. A store of value is anything that does not depreciate over time. Which means for something to have value, especially monetary value its most useful features would be, transportation through space-time without losing any of its features. For gold to be widely accepted as store of value was because of its hardness, you couldnt just dig gold out of the ground and sell it, it was aproccess which demanded equipment, and equipment demanded money. When you dug gold out of the ground, just the proccess itself made it valuable, because you couldn't create it, the only way of getting it was founding it. Second thing that made it valuable, wasn't the use in electronics (dude people in middle age didn't even have electricity), nor it was because of people using it as jewellery. Its VALUE WASNT DETERMINED BASED ON THE USECASE, SILVER, IRON or even copper have probably 1000x times more of industrial value than gold, and are used basically everywhere not just electronics and yet they are shit store of value, because they are not hard money, not hard to get and not hard to create and they depreciate over time, which is not a case for gold. Gold can go through 5 billion years and stay exactly the same as the first day it was created not losing any of its features which made it a good store of value but not so good of a monetary unit, because it lacked one important feature. Inabillity of moving it through SPACE without breaking your back while transporting it and the chance of getting robbed. And even if you could do that, the transoportation cost would cost you a fortune, which is why they invented dollar bills, to cover the space problem, time was already solved by gold itself. NOW that we've got bitcoin, which is basically capable of doing both, making it a perfect monetary system, you're saying its not having value? Maybe get some knowledge on economics first not just the fractals of charts.
Gringo1nlx
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@Gringo1nlx, The chart itself shows it is valuable, people are buying it therefore the price is going up, the demand has been here for the 10 years, what makes you think next 10 years won't be the same? Remember trend is your friend, anything else right now are pure guesses in the dark, what you're saying is hopium, hopium of bitcoin crashing probably due to the fact that you got left out early. Until bitcoin breaks the bullish structure it has retained over the last 10 years, im pretty sure the next 10 years are going to be similar. And saying it has no value, while clearly seeing thats its worth right now around 9300 bucks tells me you're delusional, not objective.
Aaron6
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@Gringo1nlx, Similarly, there used to be those proclaiming it couldnt possibly be worth one dollar.
MrRenev
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@Aaron6, There are today more people saying Bitcoin cannot possibly be worth one dollar than there has ever been :)
Aaron6
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you own silver, and dont understand a usecase for digital assets?
bits2sats
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The stopped caring about the argument the moment I read McDonalds - centralization gone right. It is the crappiest and the most tasteless food I have ever tried in my life. Junk food tastes so terrible that I feel like vomiting. A McDonalds can never ever match the quality of decentralized system in which purchase veggies and meat directly from the farmer and use it on the same day. Nor can the supermarkets match the quality of small stores (they just sell cheap stuff). Personally it feels machine like with no human interaction what you would get at a family run store. The fact is most people cannot afford to pay for the quality because of the worthless fiat, which is why almost all of these centralized businesses are actually popular.
bits2sats
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"Bitcoin ended up being a ponzi/pyramid scheme, with early adopters making a huge amount of money on the back of late adopters."
You just defined any deflationary currency versus fiat. I could use the same words for Gold (Gold was $20 in 1920 and $200 in 2000). same goes for stocks, real estate, or anything that has a limited supply. You clearly have very limited understanding of what a ponzi scheme is.