BTC once again eyeing with that 4hr support level - Caution!

Within four days BTC is eyeing that 4hr support level at 53202$. Usually this is not such a good sign and people will draw you all kinds of trend lines and indicators, trying to convince you that this is bullish and you should buy the "dip".

I will be more realistic about it:
If I was holding BTC, I would not sell at this moment. As I have mentioned in my previous posts, I am only invested with 1/3 of my account size and keep 2/3 for buying major drops (>-25%).

If you don't have any BTC, then you should probably wait, because if the 4hr-support does not hold, we will most likely see a retest of our weekly level at 50281$. Yes, you might miss out on gains, but on the other hand you will not lose your savings.

The thing that is bothering me most is that BTC has not tested a monthly support level, which has been recently established at 45104$.

There is a chance that this could happen - usually professional traders will keep their calm, but another factor comes into play:
More and more retail investors are buying in, some even take their savings or a loan and the only reliable source is the taxi driver or the barber that is promising immense returns. Market psychology has a great impact on price. If people buy in high, there is a slight chance that, while the price is actually retesting support levels, they will sell in panic and set off the next bear season... I am not saying that this will happen - just trade with caution!

The market is very greedy at the moment and usually greed is our biggest enemy.

-This is no financial advice-

For transparency reasons: I am no longer invested in BTC, but since a drop in BTC will affect all other altcoins, it is crucial to check the health of supply and demand.
I am currently holding PUNDIX with 1/10 of my account size.

Comment:

What a wild ride: the price just touched the weekly level at 50281$ (see my assumption above). We might see a slight rejection back up, but signs are still pointing towards a retest of the monthly level at 45104$. If this happens, there is a big questionmark, because at this point many individuals are invested, they "bought" the dip at 56K, they bought the dip at 54K and they might have bought the dip at 50K, but now psychology plays a major role.

Many might fear that the price will go even lower and hence, rather sell for a loss, than keep it and lose even more. This can initiate a wave of panic selling (what actually happened in 2018 with a few other factors)

If you are wondering where that could lead us, just watch the levels on my chart (purple are weekly levels and white are monthly levels). Monthly levels are stronger than weekly.

-This is no financial advice, so please trade with care!-

For transparency reasons: I am not invested in BTC, but hold PUNDIX with 1/10th of my account size.

Comment:

Buckle up everyone, because this will be a bumpy ride. $BTC has fallen thru the weekly support - there is a very high possibility that it will touch the monthly level at 45104$. From there we could see a rejection upwards, but that is not the end. Usually and support that has not sustained, will no function as resistance.

If you did not buy any dips yesterday, then you are in luck, since your fiat holdings are worth more crypto.

-No financial advice, so trade with care!-