Following the latest analysis on Bitcoin's Symmetrical Cycles (2017/18 vs 2019) on the 1M chart (you can find it at the bottom of this study), I have decided to take the research one step further and attempt to time the bottom of the current correction.
In doing so I have scaled down to the 1D chart using again the MA1000 and MA1400 periods as the long term Buy Zone to give us again a perspective of where buy accumulation is on its optimal level.
* Symmetrical Cycles Then I have kept the previous study's phases:
* On one hand the 2017 final aggressive 13 month rise of only 3 red months and the 2018 symmetrical 13 month Bear Cycle of only 3 green months.
* On the other the 2019 very aggressive (parabolic) sequence of 5 straight green months and the current correction (of at the moment 3 straight red months).
But having applied them on the 1D chart, I had to do a few (minor) modifications regarding the duration of the cycles in order to fit the exact Tops and Bottoms on the daily frame. This doesn't alter the efficiency of the projection. The key characteristic is that the Bear phase is 0.88*Bull phase. This puts the end of the current correction (bottom) in early December 2019.
*The Fibonacci Boxes What is more important on the current study is the application of the Fibonacci retracement levels (log scale) on both axis (price and time) creating a box. Each box fits inside the Bull and Bear phases of each Cycle. As you see the Top on both Cycles was made within the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The bottom in 2018 was made within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Similarly I find no reason not to assume that the current bottom will be outside the 0.5 - 0.618 level, which is within 6500 - 5500.
*The Scary Coincidence All the above factors combined place the expected bottom within $6500 - 5500, comfortably on the MA1000/1400 Buy Zone in December 2019. Coincidentally the 2018 Bottom (and Bear Cycle low) was also made in December. So practically we have 2 identical cycles (both Bull and Bear) with symmetrical tops and same candle characteristics on the monthly chart (mentioned on the previous analysis) that can potentially bottom on the same month.
Is this scary enough for you? Too obvious of a pattern/ projection to be fulfilled? Well in my opinion this is a fair estimation of when we should start preparing for a bull party again! You are all invited to like, subscribe and share your comments, ideas and charts with me!
See the previous study on the 1M (monthly) chart below
As well as complementary material on the expected bottom
I enjoy looking at the various ideas presented about the future of bitcoin. Interesting from my stand point as a person planning to be a high school math teacher in the 60's and totally freaking out at entering a classroom of teenagers (who already know everything) for my practice teaching, so I immediately switched to engineering and went in that direction. I am very interested, sometimes amazed and maybe amused at the little forcing of the data to fit the desired outcome or that is what it feels like to me. Keep on going with it though, I follow a number of you guys and gals here on trading view. Hodling bitcoin out of pure speculation.
TradingShot
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@KWpete, Thank you Mr Pete for your deep inputs! All the best to you!
aStoicsTradingTools
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So I am new to trading view.
1° Does this mean I made a mistake buying BTC @ around 8000$ ?
2° Should I sell it and by altcoins instead ?
3° I guess now it's best not to buy more BTC before the next bottom ?
abcdef111
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No historical data based on a single data variable (price) and the myriad of indicators derived from that single variable will ever predict the future variable value in a chaotic market, by definition. It can and will describe the history but never the future. A simple complex neural network analysis that can pick out very deep complex patterns will show 0 such predictive patterns in a chaotic market with one variable and its derivatives, except it will always find the only one feature - trend - over the researched time period - which is simply the average slope over the whole period. It will never find any predictive patterns, in a chaotic market. Technical analysis is quite simply a casino, period, and worse for those who think it is chaotic for the big players who know transactions of everyone on the market.
TradingShot
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@abcdef111, I keep your last sentence regarding the transactions and fully agree. But you can't dismiss the use of solid technical analysis in determining demand and supply zones. It has been working on the stock, forex, commodities markets for ages.
abcdef111
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@TradingShot, determining the demand and supply zones of the past, yes, absolutely. Never of the future, even one bar out.
CryptoTrend-Alerts
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Nice chart!
I have something similar.
TradingShot
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@CryptoTrend-Alerts, I like that application of EW even though I do not agree as it violates the long term parabolic growth curve.