Let's look at the whole picture using the weekly chart.
The price could not break the main downtrend line. We can say that we got a false breakout as the price moved back below the downtrend line.
At the same time, we can say that the market is bullish, in spite of lower swing highs and lows. The price is above SMA50, which is above SMA100, and all together, they are above SMA200.
We have a bullish market where we had a correction period. The market is trying to continue the uptrend, but for this, the price must break the downtrend line. It means that the price action at the downtrend line is very important for the further market movement.
If the price bounces, we will be able to see a new correction wave to SMA100, SMA200, and even to the bottom line of the triangle chart pattern. The breakout and staying below SMA200 as well as the breakout below the bottom line, it will give us a trend reversal signal and the market will be able to become bearish.
In order to get the solid confirmation that the uptrend is going to be continued, the price will have to move above the local swing high at 10000USD. The price will have to break the downtrend line one more time and stay above it. Probably SMA50 will be a possible support line after such a breakout. But where are active buyers? Where are the volume and the demand for Bitcoin? Without it, it is too naive to think about the journey "to the Moon", even if Twitter's feed is overloaded by Skywalkers.
P.S. as I don't use like-bots and other solutions that show great "interest" to my posts, I will be grateful if you support my work by your LIKEs and comment. Of course, if you can do it. The feedback from REAL people is priceless!
Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
The volume got halved in case you didn't notice 50% of the sell pressure is gone. Sure a surplus remains but grayscale is buying all that up. Your not seeing volume because grayscale does OTC buys straight from miners. THey bought 2/3 of the btc mined in the past 100 days. You think you have an edge on this market but the price action and voluime you are seeing is but 1/3 of the market. Until you get into grayscales accounting you have no idea what the real volume is. But those OTC desks are drying up . Quick
dpullell
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@charvey63 great point!
SDlektric
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@charvey63, And whats your conclusion for future price action?
STPAUL007
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yep
waterslide
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I would be very cautious here. Until bitcoin shows us otherwise, we are in a bear market that started in 12/2017. Sure, there are periods of bullish activity, but all within the boundaries of the major downtrend line. Even the fomo bull run to ~14,000 could not break the line. The last time we were rejected off of the major downtrend line (and in conjunction with other market factors [COVID], we experienced a huuuge dump. We could spend several more months bouncing around in this triangle before breaking the line and flipping to a true bull market. Patience. Caution. Risk management. Good luck all!
hello_hello
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@waterslide, FOMO BULL RUN to 14k COULDN'T BREAK THAT LINE BECAUSE IT DIDN'T EXIST BEFORE THAT BULL RUN, omg
waterslide
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@hello_hello, LOL, yes that is a great point!! Hahahaha
SpartaBTC
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SpartaBTC
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@SpartaBTC, posted this idea with a symmetrical triangle almost 1 year ago
mindsdecay
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Notable that this is the first time since 2017 that BTC has grinded against that upper bound instead of immediate rejection