Prior chart showed weekly price action, as with fundamentals...technicals can provide more perspective when taking a top down approach (4HR).
BTC downside at the start of the Asia session sees 2 key shorter term trendlines and/or key price levels tested:
Break below trendline support at 17k big figure opens door to stops on weak longs triggered to the -
next trendline support around 16.5k also littered with s/t stops for weak longs.
14K pivot intersects with a more medium term t/l support but a break below may see BTC on its back heel on the back of continued runs on stops, essentially longs cascading into covered shorts.
BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE LARGER PICTURE ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP POSTED FRI , NOV 19, 2020
61.8% to 78.6 fibo level zone extended from the 1st wave of correction of the all-time highs provides clear positive risk: reward play for a downside correction to follow with entries preferably near the extended 78.6 fibo level short BTC at around $18,035 with stops above all time highs and just below the next big figure at $20099 and final take profit targets just above the key $12,500 pivot providing a 4:1 risk reward play.
BIG BTC SHORT ADJUSTMENTS ENTRY: BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE AND 7 CONSECTIVE WEEK PATTERN
ADDITIONAL SHORTS ABOVE CURRENT MARKET RATES TO CURRENT AVERAGE OF ABOUT $18516 as of Nov 22
STOPS (LOSSES): ADJUSTING HIGHER PRE-THANKSGIVING
ADJUSTED HIGHER TO ABOVE 1.618 fibo level (downside wave starting at just below 13K to 4k) to $21,030 to avoid stop runs on potential volatility spikes over Thanksgiving holiday season.
LIMIT (PROFITS): CLOSING HALF AT $10,900 and REMAINDER @ 4K level
T/PS ADJUSTED TO $10,900 and $4,000 for half a position each providing potential gains of roughly 98% on t/p level 1 and 360% if the final take profit hits at the 4k area equating to an average return of 274% with a risk percentage of just -8% on unleveraged positions
UPDATE: DROWN OUT THE NOISE, FOCUS ON THE TAPE
Bullish Retail Sentiment High = Higher Probability of Contrarian Counter Shorts
BTC valuations at 100k within a year by many analysts at banks also made same prediction for BTC to be trading at that price point by this point in time
Stronger USD likely on flight to safety as US death tolls hitting record daily rates and we approach key year end growth numbers globally
Low liquidity into the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday has typically seen vicious moves to the downside
Max pain trade is definitively to the downside, not higher
Happy Holiday Weekend, and some may be thinking who this guy posting ridiculous r:r trade setups within this community...follow the links for a few hints: