It looks like Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) price action is playing out similarly to the previous price cycles. Bitcoin's price tends to rally for about three years. This is followed by a bear market that lasts about one year. One year from the peak price of $126k will take us to about September/October of 2026.
A bear flag exists on the weekly chart. I see the possibility for bitcoin's price to break below the bear flag formation for another leg down. I estimate the potential bottom at about 38k, which would be a 70% decline from the peak. That would be less than the 78% drop from the last price cycle (each cycle experienced a shallower percentage decline).
The last price cycle bottom formed a bullish divergence as the price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. I think a similar formation could occur this time. That would create a great buying opportunity as each price cycle bottom has.
David Zanoni
A bear flag exists on the weekly chart. I see the possibility for bitcoin's price to break below the bear flag formation for another leg down. I estimate the potential bottom at about 38k, which would be a 70% decline from the peak. That would be less than the 78% drop from the last price cycle (each cycle experienced a shallower percentage decline).
The last price cycle bottom formed a bullish divergence as the price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. I think a similar formation could occur this time. That would create a great buying opportunity as each price cycle bottom has.
David Zanoni
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.