The current price movement is showing a lot of similarities what we have seen in the past back in the time when bulls were euphoric. (NOTE: Chart on the right side is inverse version from the current price action)
Are bears getting as euphoric as bulls back in the 2017? Maybe, it's hard to say but what we know that the majority of people are gone and lost their interest to cryptocurrencies. Which means that they have given up and those who are left are expecting bitcoin to move below $3.000 price point and beyond. There are few things that reveals this information and one of them is a sentimental analysis. Sentimental analysis is form of a data which is gathered from various of sources (for example from social media, some indicators that are built for these purposes and general atmosphere among the traders/investors) to create an analysis and adjust trades according to it.
It's very common to see extreme emotional behavior at the very top or bottom of the markets. People are either very pessimistic or optimistic and this gives a chance to be a contrarian. It's very rare to see the price move along with consensus when the sentiments are extreme.
Bitcoin is showing a fractal that's often to used to study the current price movement. Basically it means that there are a lot of similarities with what we have already seen in the past and can be compared to the current price movement as it looks a like. Often formations, trading behaviors and trading pattern tends to repeat that we have seen in the past.
However, there's something to keep in mind that the price movement will never be exactly the same when compared to the past and should treated as a study to give possible hints for the current price movement. Outcome often differs and that's why it's important to be careful here.
If you come up with any questions feel free to ask!
DISCLAIMER: Please be aware this is not financial advice. You are responsible for your trading and investing decisions. It is highly recommended to do your own research before investing in anything.
Yarr
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If this fractal is going to follow the same path than back in the 2017 & 2018I it should be reach 4.2k quite easily. But it's good to remember that prices haven't moved that much per day as they did back in the bull market so we can assume from this that it's better to lower expectations and so on targets as well.
Daily candle closing above of 0.618 fibonacci level would be a strong indication that the market is trying to reverse.
You are correct.Buying bitcoin @18000 in bull market if no different than selling @ 3000 in bear market. People will come realize this statement soon enough :)
@lj_4b, if the fractal follows as it was before then it should have no problem reaching those targets
etnips7
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Good one!
yarr
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@spinte7, thanks and appreciated!
MrRenev
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You can find the number of opened short (bears) on internet. On trading view there is a chart for shorts on Bitfinex. Bitfinex Okex Bitmex these are the one you need.
Bears now are in lower number than in 2017.