BTC on the log scale has a long-term trend that will place BTC in the potential 80k range by the end of the year. I also do not expect BTCs recovery to take as long as the previous years to recover as the now bankrupt Mt Gox exchange at the time accounted for as high as 90% of the trading volume whereas with this current short-term bear trend BTC has not had any major setbacks to match.
I believe that some fundametally good news will drive some momentum, like adoption in retail, or the emergence of a solid payment interface for small biz